L’École des cotes

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Denis Shapovalov

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-05 04:50 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (23 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local)

Prévision 54.84%1.82cote équitable
EV -0.198%
Avantage -0.109%
Kelly -0.242%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.82

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.36%54.85%54.81%56.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.671.741.731.8259.88%57.60%57.80%54.95%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Denis Shapovalov (Visiteur)

Prévision 45.16%2.21cote équitable
EV +0.715%
Avantage +0.321%
Kelly +0.581%
Croissance +0.004%

avec la cote maximale 2.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
43.26%45.15%45.19%47.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.102.102.2350.00%47.73%47.62%44.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV +0.715%E +0.321%K +0.581%G +0.004%3.7%2026-03-05 04:45
LowVig.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV +0.715%E +0.321%K +0.581%G +0.004%3.7%2026-03-05 04:45
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.04%E -2.31%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -1.54%E -0.708%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-05 04:15
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.04%E -2.31%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -1.54%E -0.708%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-05 04:45
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.04%E -2.31%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -1.54%E -0.708%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-05 04:35
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -7.33%E -4.34%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -1.54%E -0.708%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 04:20
SportsBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -7.33%E -4.34%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -2.45%E -1.13%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-05 04:20
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 04:44
Bovada1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 04:14
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 04:45
Bet Right1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.25%E -2.01%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 04:45
GTbets1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -4.70%E -2.23%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-05 04:30
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -4.70%E -2.23%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-05 04:10
Hard Rock Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.94%E -1.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 04:09
Unibet (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
Unibet (NL)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
Casumo1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
LiveScore Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
BetRivers1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
Grosvenor1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
TABtouch1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
Unibet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
betPARX1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
Bally Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
ATG (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:10
Svenska Spel1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 04:09
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.04%E -2.31%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 04:10
NordicBet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 04:10
Betsson1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 04:10
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 04:10
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 04:10
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 04:10
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 04:10
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 04:10
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 04:25
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 04:10
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 04:10
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-05 04:20
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-05 04:10
Betr (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-05 04:45
Caesars1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-05 04:10
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-05 04:10
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-05 04:10
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.42%E -5.04%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 04:20
Codere (IT)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -6.06%E -2.91%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 04:10
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.41%E -3.62%K -7.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-05 04:25
Virgin Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.41%E -3.62%K -7.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-05 04:10
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.41%E -3.62%K -7.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-05 04:25
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.41%E -3.62%K -7.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 04:20
Unibet (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -0.746%E -0.412%K -0.922%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -9.22%E -4.59%K -9.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 04:45
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.198%E -0.109%K -0.242%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-05 04:10
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.29%E -0.719%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-05 04:10
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-05 04:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-05 04:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-05 04:25
Neds1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-05 04:25
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-05 04:45
NetBet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-05 04:44
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-03-05 04:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-03-05 04:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-03-05 04:45
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-03-05 04:45
Smarkets1.75I 57.14%NM 55.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.30%2.6%2026-03-05 04:45
Novig1.75I 57.14%NM 55.24%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76%3.4%2026-03-05 04:30