Language:English
Sebastian Korda v Francisco Comesana
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sebastian Korda (Local)
Prediction 81.30%1.23fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -12.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.95%81.22%81.32%82.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2089.29%85.56%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Francisco Comesana (Visit)
Prediction 18.70%5.35fair odd
EV +4.89%
Edge +0.871%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 5.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.04%18.78%18.68%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.005.005.6122.22%20.00%20.00%17.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sebastian Korda (Local): 81.30%; Francisco Comesana (Visit): 18.70%. For Francisco Comesana (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.35. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.87%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.61I 17.83%NM 17.13%EV +4.89%E +0.871%K +1.06%G +0.052% | 4.0% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.87%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.61I 17.83%NM 17.13%EV +4.89%E +0.871%K +1.06%G +0.052% | 4.0% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.31%E -6.42%K -52.24%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +2.83%E +0.515%K +0.629%G +0.018% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -8.13%E -7.19%K -62.52%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +2.83%E +0.515%K +0.629%G +0.018% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.18%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 5.44I 18.38%NM 17.82%EV +1.71%E +0.314%K +0.385%G +0.007% | 3.1% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.07%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.93%EV +0.961%E +0.178%K +0.218%G +0.002% | 3.3% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -7.31%E -6.42%K -52.24%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV +0.961%E +0.178%K +0.218%G +0.002% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 02:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.94%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 5.31I 18.83%NM 18.06%EV -0.721%E -0.136%K -0.167%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -8.94%E -7.98%K -74.50%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -0.908%E -0.171%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -3.25%E -2.73%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV -1.84%E -0.351%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-06 02:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.84%E -0.351%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -1.84%E -0.351%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -1.84%E -0.351%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.50%E -5.65%K -43.34%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -1.84%E -0.351%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -2.78%E -0.534%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 02:43 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.78%E -0.534%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.78%E -0.534%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.78%E -0.534%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.78%E -0.534%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:31 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.78%E -0.534%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.78%E -0.534%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.78%E -0.534%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -4.65%E -0.911%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -4.65%E -0.911%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 02:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -6.50%E -5.65%K -43.34%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -4.65%E -0.911%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 02:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.52%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.52%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 02:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.52%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.52%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.52%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 02:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.52%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.52%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 02:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.39%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.39%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.39%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.39%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:37 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.39%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.39%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.39%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.39%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -5.69%E -4.90%K -35.55%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -8.39%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -9.32%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -10.26%E -2.14%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 02:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -2.44%E -2.03%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -11.19%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 02:37 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -11.19%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -12.13%E -2.58%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -6.50%E -5.65%K -43.34%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -13.06%E -2.81%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -14.00%E -3.04%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.06%E -3.44%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -14.00%E -3.04%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.44%E -2.03%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.87%E -3.53%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 02:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.44%E -2.03%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.87%E -3.53%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.44%E -2.03%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.87%E -3.53%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 02:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.44%E -2.03%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.87%E -3.53%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 02:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.87%E -3.53%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 02:33 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.87%E -3.53%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.87%E -3.53%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.87%E -4.17%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.87%E -3.53%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.22% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.05% | 5.78I 17.30%NM 16.95% | 2.0% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |