Language:English
Reilly Opelka v Ethan Quinn
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Reilly Opelka (Local)
Prediction 48.09%2.08fair odd
EV +8.19%
Edge +3.64%
Kelly +6.56%
Growth +0.537%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.18%48.35%48.93%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.931.912.2558.82%51.88%52.36%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ethan Quinn (Visit)
Prediction 51.91%1.93fair odd
EV +9.02%
Edge +4.29%
Kelly +8.20%
Growth +0.739%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%51.65%51.07%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.861.852.1059.52%53.80%54.05%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Reilly Opelka (Local): 48.09%; Ethan Quinn (Visit): 51.91%. For Ethan Quinn (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.02%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -16.81%E -9.72%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +9.02%E +4.29%K +8.20%G +0.739% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -13.44%E -7.47%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +6.42%E +3.13%K +6.12%G +0.393% | 4.3% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -15.85%E -9.06%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +6.42%E +3.13%K +6.12%G +0.393% | 5.9% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -18.25%E -10.74%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV +6.42%E +3.13%K +6.12%G +0.393% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -13.93%E -7.78%K -17.63%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV +5.90%E +2.89%K +5.68%G +0.335% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -13.93%E -7.78%K -17.63%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV +5.90%E +2.89%K +5.68%G +0.335% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -13.93%E -7.78%K -17.63%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV +5.90%E +2.89%K +5.68%G +0.335% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -13.93%E -7.78%K -17.63%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV +5.90%E +2.89%K +5.68%G +0.335% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -13.93%E -7.78%K -17.63%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV +5.90%E +2.89%K +5.68%G +0.335% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -15.37%E -8.73%K -20.22%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV +5.90%E +2.89%K +5.68%G +0.335% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -14.41%E -8.09%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV +4.87%E +2.41%K +4.77%G +0.232% | 5.7% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -13.44%E -7.47%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +3.83%E +1.91%K +3.83%G +0.147% | 5.6% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -14.89%E -8.41%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV +3.83%E +1.91%K +3.83%G +0.147% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -14.89%E -8.41%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV +3.83%E +1.91%K +3.83%G +0.147% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -14.89%E -8.41%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV +3.83%E +1.91%K +3.83%G +0.147% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -15.85%E -9.06%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV +2.27%E +1.15%K +2.34%G +0.053% | 7.9% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.97%EV -16.33%E -9.39%K -22.07%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.03%EV +1.75%E +0.893%K +1.82%G +0.032% | 8.5% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -11.04%E -5.97%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +1.23%E +0.632%K +1.30%G +0.016% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -11.04%E -5.97%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +1.23%E +0.632%K +1.30%G +0.016% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -13.44%E -7.47%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +1.23%E +0.632%K +1.30%G +0.016% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 21:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.16%E -4.27%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.845%E -0.442%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 21:13 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -12.00%E -6.56%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -0.845%E -0.442%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -12.00%E -6.56%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -0.845%E -0.442%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -16.33%E -9.39%K -22.07%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -0.845%E -0.442%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -8.16%E -4.27%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -2.40%E -1.28%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-04 21:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.54%EV -11.52%E -6.26%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.46%EV -2.40%E -1.28%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -7.19%E -3.73%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -2.92%E -1.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -12.00%E -6.56%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -2.92%E -1.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -11.04%E -5.97%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -3.96%E -2.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -11.04%E -5.97%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -3.96%E -2.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.16%E -4.27%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 21:13 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.16%E -4.27%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 21:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.16%E -4.27%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.04%EV -11.04%E -5.97%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.96%EV -7.59%E -4.27%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-04 21:13 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV +0.981%E +0.467%K +0.892%G +0.009% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -9.15%E -5.23%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -1.42%E -0.694%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -9.15%E -5.23%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-04 21:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -3.83%E -1.91%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -9.15%E -5.23%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.23%E -3.20%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -9.15%E -5.23%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +3.87%E +1.79%K +3.33%G +0.129% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -9.67%E -5.56%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-04 21:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +3.87%E +1.79%K +3.33%G +0.129% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -9.67%E -5.56%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-04 21:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV +0.019%E +0.009%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -9.67%E -5.56%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-04 21:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -1.42%E -0.694%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.67%E -5.56%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -1.42%E -0.694%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.67%E -5.56%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-04 21:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV +1.46%E +0.693%K +1.32%G +0.019% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -10.19%E -5.89%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +0.981%E +0.467%K +0.892%G +0.009% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -10.19%E -5.89%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV +1.94%E +0.916%K +1.73%G +0.034% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -10.71%E -6.23%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 21:06 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.91%EV +1.46%E +0.693%K +1.32%G +0.019% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.09%EV -10.71%E -6.23%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-04 21:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV +0.981%E +0.467%K +0.892%G +0.009% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -10.71%E -6.23%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV +8.19%E +3.64%K +6.56%G +0.537% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -11.23%E -6.57%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-04 21:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV +0.981%E +0.467%K +0.892%G +0.009% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -11.23%E -6.57%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 21:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV +4.35%E +2.00%K +3.72%G +0.162% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -11.75%E -6.91%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 21:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -1.42%E -0.694%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -11.75%E -6.91%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -1.42%E -0.694%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -11.75%E -6.91%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV +3.39%E +1.57%K +2.94%G +0.100% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -12.27%E -7.26%K -17.78%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-04 21:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV +3.39%E +1.57%K +2.94%G +0.100% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -12.78%E -7.61%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-04 21:08 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV +3.39%E +1.57%K +2.94%G +0.100% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -12.78%E -7.61%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -4.79%E -2.42%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -12.78%E -7.61%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.37% | 0.2% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 0.4% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 0.4% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98% | 8.0% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |