Language:English
Nuno Borges v Emilio Nava
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nuno Borges (Local)
Prediction 60.09%1.66fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.75%60.02%60.15%61.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.581.571.6365.79%63.46%63.69%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Emilio Nava (Visit)
Prediction 39.91%2.51fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.905%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.90%39.98%39.85%41.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.382.402.4544.44%42.07%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nuno Borges (Local): 60.09%; Emilio Nava (Visit): 39.91%. For Nuno Borges (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.63, with an expected value of -2.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.06%E -1.26%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.66%E -1.64%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.66%E -1.64%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.26%E -2.02%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.22%E -0.905%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.26%E -2.02%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 01:08 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.26%E -2.02%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 00:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.26%E -2.02%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.20%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -3.41%E -1.41%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-06 01:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.01%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-06 01:07 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -5.81%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.20%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.20%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 00:58 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.46%E -2.80%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -4.46%E -2.80%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -5.41%E -2.28%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 01:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.01%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.20%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -10.20%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -10.20%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 01:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -4.61%E -1.93%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -5.41%E -2.28%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.20%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 01:06 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.20%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 01:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.20%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 01:07 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.20%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.20%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.22%E -0.905%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 01:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.86%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -7.46%E -4.85%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -5.01%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.06%E -5.27%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.21%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 01:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.67%E -5.70%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-03-06 01:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-03-06 01:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-03-06 01:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.41% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.59% | 2.6% | 2026-03-06 01:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 01:15 |