Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Casper Ruud
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 93.59%1.07fair odd
EV +2.01%
Edge +1.84%
Kelly +22.34%
Growth +0.449%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.14%93.16%93.69%96.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.031.021.09100.00%97.16%98.04%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Casper Ruud (Visit)
Prediction 6.41%15.60fair odd
EV +66.71%
Edge +2.57%
Kelly +2.67%
Growth +1.78%
assuming max odds 26.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.74%6.84%6.31%12.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.2513.8213.2526.0013.79%7.24%7.55%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 93.59%; Casper Ruud (Visit): 6.41%. For Casper Ruud (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.60. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +66.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +66.71%E +2.57%K +2.67%G +1.78% | 2.9% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.08%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.92%EV +60.30%E +2.41%K +2.51%G +1.52% | 2.0% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +47.48%E +2.06%K +2.16%G +1.02% | 3.4% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +34.65%E +1.65%K +1.73%G +0.600% | 2.8% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +28.24%E +1.41%K +1.49%G +0.420% | 3.0% | 2026-03-11 22:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +28.24%E +1.41%K +1.49%G +0.420% | 4.0% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +28.24%E +1.41%K +1.49%G +0.420% | 4.0% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.86%EV -3.60%E -3.50%K -120.15%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.14%EV +21.83%E +1.15%K +1.21%G +0.265% | 2.4% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +21.83%E +1.15%K +1.21%G +0.265% | 3.3% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -6.41%E -6.41%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV +21.83%E +1.15%K +1.21%G +0.265% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +9.01%E +0.530%K +0.563%G +0.051% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +9.01%E +0.530%K +0.563%G +0.051% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +9.01%E +0.530%K +0.563%G +0.051% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +2.59%E +0.162%K +0.173%G +0.004% | 4.3% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +2.59%E +0.162%K +0.173%G +0.004% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 22:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -3.82%E -0.255%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -3.82%E -0.255%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -3.82%E -0.255%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -3.82%E -0.255%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -3.82%E -0.255%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -3.82%E -0.255%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -3.82%E -0.255%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -3.82%E -0.255%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.32%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.68%EV -8.63%E -0.605%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -10.23%E -0.731%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 22:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -10.23%E -0.731%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.98%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.02%EV -13.44%E -0.995%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -16.64%E -1.28%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-11 22:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -16.64%E -1.28%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -16.64%E -1.28%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -16.64%E -1.28%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -23.05%E -1.92%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 22:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -23.05%E -1.92%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 22:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -23.05%E -1.92%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-11 22:13 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -23.05%E -1.92%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -23.05%E -1.92%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.93%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -26.26%E -2.28%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 22:13 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -4.54%E -4.45%K -227.02%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -29.47%E -2.68%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -29.47%E -2.68%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-11 22:13 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.91%EV -5.48%E -5.42%K -547.62%G +0.000% | 10.10I 9.90%NM 9.09%EV -35.24%E -3.49%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-11 22:11 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.37%EV -0.797%E -0.752%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 9.95I 10.05%NM 9.63%EV -36.20%E -3.64%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-11 22:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 89.95%EV +2.01%E +1.84%K +22.34%G +0.449% | 9.76I 10.25%NM 10.05%EV -37.42%E -3.83%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-03-11 22:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -0.797%E -0.752%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -39.08%E -4.11%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 21:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.74%EV +0.139%E +0.130%K +1.99%G +0.003% | 9.36I 10.68%NM 10.26%EV -39.98%E -4.27%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-11 21:41 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.74%EV +0.139%E +0.130%K +1.99%G +0.003% | 9.36I 10.68%NM 10.26%EV -39.98%E -4.27%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-11 21:41 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.50%EV -0.797%E -0.752%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 9.04I 11.06%NM 10.50%EV -42.03%E -4.65%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-11 22:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV +1.07%E +0.995%K +13.44%G +0.144% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -45.50%E -5.35%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-11 21:41 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV +0.139%E +0.130%K +1.99%G +0.003% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -45.50%E -5.35%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 21:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -0.797%E -0.752%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -45.50%E -5.35%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-11 22:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV +0.139%E +0.130%K +1.99%G +0.003% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -48.70%E -6.09%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 21:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV +1.07%E +0.995%K +13.44%G +0.144% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -51.91%E -6.92%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-11 22:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -0.797%E -0.752%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -51.91%E -6.92%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 22:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.14%EV +0.139%E +0.130%K +1.99%G +0.003% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -53.51%E -7.38%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-11 21:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.14%EV +0.139%E +0.130%K +1.99%G +0.003% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -53.51%E -7.38%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-11 21:41 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.33% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67% | 0.8% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.33% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67% | 0.8% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 25.97I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.14% | 25.64I 3.90%NM 3.86% | 1.0% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.36% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.64% | 1.7% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |