Language:English
Alex Michelsen v Taylor Fritz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Prediction 30.39%3.29fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.384%
Kelly -0.555%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.89%30.40%30.49%31.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.113.103.2534.48%32.21%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Taylor Fritz (Visit)
Prediction 69.61%1.44fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -6.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.08%69.60%69.51%71.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.361.4076.92%73.22%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Michelsen (Local): 30.39%; Taylor Fritz (Visit): 69.61%. For Alex Michelsen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -1.25%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -1.25%E -0.384%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 30.17%EV -1.55%E -0.479%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.83%EV -2.54%E -1.81%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -2.16%E -0.671%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -6.02%E -4.46%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.77%E -0.865%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.77%E -0.865%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-09 21:48 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.77%E -0.865%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -2.77%E -0.865%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.41%E -5.57%K -22.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.77%E -0.865%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.50%E -7.31%K -31.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.35%EV -3.07%E -0.963%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.65%EV -3.24%E -2.33%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -3.37%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 21:48 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV -3.37%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -6.02%E -4.46%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.29%E -1.36%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.29%E -1.36%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.29%E -1.36%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.63%E -3.38%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.29%E -1.36%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.63%E -3.38%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.29%E -1.36%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.63%E -3.38%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.29%E -1.36%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 21:48 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.63%E -3.38%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.81%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.41%E -5.57%K -22.46%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -6.72%E -2.19%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.24%EV -7.02%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.76%EV -3.24%E -2.33%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.33%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -7.33%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -6.72%E -5.01%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.93%E -2.85%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.02%E -4.46%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.02%E -4.46%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.02%E -4.46%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.02%E -4.46%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.02%E -4.46%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -11.88%E -4.10%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-09 21:42 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 0.8% | 2026-03-09 21:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 0.8% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Novig◎ | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.78% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.22% | 1.0% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.82% | 2.3% | 2026-03-09 21:50 |