L’École des cotes

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Jakub Mensik

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-08 21:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local)

Prévision 41.71%2.40cote équitable
EV +4.27%
Avantage +1.71%
Kelly +2.84%
Croissance +0.121%

avec la cote maximale 2.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.50%41.82%41.77%46.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.952.272.302.5051.28%44.14%43.48%40.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Jakub Mensik (Visiteur)

Prévision 58.29%1.72cote équitable
EV +2.01%
Avantage +1.15%
Kelly +2.69%
Croissance +0.054%

avec la cote maximale 1.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
53.13%58.18%58.23%62.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.501.611.601.7566.67%62.13%62.50%57.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +4.27%E +1.71%K +2.84%G +0.121%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -12.56%E -8.37%K -25.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 21:15
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV +0.095%E +0.040%K +0.068%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -7.31%E -4.60%K -12.39%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 21:15
Bovada2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -1.99%E -0.847%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -6.15%E -3.82%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 21:14
Hard Rock Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -1.99%E -0.847%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -7.31%E -4.60%K -12.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 21:15
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -1.99%E -0.847%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -7.90%E -5.00%K -13.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 21:15
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.99%E -0.847%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 21:14
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.99%E -0.847%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 21:14
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.99%E -0.847%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 21:15
ATG (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.99%E -0.847%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 21:14
Svenska Spel2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.99%E -0.847%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 21:15
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.99%E -0.847%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 21:14
1xBet2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -2.82%E -1.21%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 21:06
Unibet (UK)2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -2.82%E -1.21%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 21:14
TABtouch2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -3.24%E -1.40%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -9.06%E -5.81%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 21:15
Pinnacle2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -3.66%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -1.48%E -0.878%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-08 21:05
DraftKings2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -3.66%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 21:09
LowVig.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.65%E -1.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 21:00
BetOnline.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.65%E -1.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 20:59
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.82%E -2.31%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 21:13
Betsson2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 21:14
NordicBet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 21:14
Caesars2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.31%E -4.60%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 21:15
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.31%E -4.60%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 21:14
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 21:15
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 21:15
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 21:15
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -9.06%E -5.81%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 21:14
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -9.06%E -5.81%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 21:15
LiveScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -9.06%E -5.81%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 21:14
Fliff2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -10.81%E -7.07%K -20.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 21:15
LeoVegas2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -4.91%E -2.15%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -10.23%E -6.64%K -18.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 21:14
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.98%E -3.06%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 21:14
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 21:14
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 21:14
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 21:14
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -7.90%E -5.00%K -13.61%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-08 21:14
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 21:14
LeoVegas (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -10.23%E -6.64%K -18.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-08 21:14
GTbets2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.00%E -3.14%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 21:00
Bet Right2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -7.41%E -3.34%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 21:04
Marathon Bet2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -7.83%E -3.54%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-08 21:03
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.25%E -3.75%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.65%E -1.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 21:00
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.25%E -3.75%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.65%E -1.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 21:00
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -8.25%E -3.75%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-08 21:07
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.25%E -3.75%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.82%E -2.31%K -5.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 21:09
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.25%E -3.75%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.82%E -2.31%K -5.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 21:00
NetBet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -8.25%E -3.75%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -4.98%E -3.06%K -7.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-08 20:59
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.25%E -3.75%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 21:00
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.25%E -3.75%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 21:15
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.25%E -3.75%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -9.06%E -5.81%K -16.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 21:14
Unibet (FR)2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -8.66%E -3.96%K -7.28%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -2.07%E -1.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 21:00
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -10.33%E -4.81%K -8.98%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -4.40%E -2.68%K -6.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 21:00
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -10.33%E -4.81%K -8.98%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -4.40%E -2.68%K -6.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 21:00
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -10.33%E -4.81%K -8.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-08 21:05
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -12.42%E -5.91%K -11.29%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV +2.01%E +1.15%K +2.69%G +0.054%4.8%2026-03-08 21:00
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -12.42%E -5.91%K -11.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -2.65%E -1.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 20:59
Betclic (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.87%EV -18.67%E -9.58%K -19.66%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.13%EV +0.265%E +0.154%K +0.368%G +0.001%9.4%2026-03-08 21:13
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-03-08 21:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-03-08 21:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-03-08 21:14
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%3.0%2026-03-08 21:15
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%3.0%2026-03-08 21:15
Novig2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%6.5%2026-03-08 21:15