Language:English
Yannick Hanfmann v Joao Fonseca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Yannick Hanfmann (Local)
Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV +4.01%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.54%
Growth +0.062%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%29.31%28.57%39.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.373.303.453.6042.19%30.28%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joao Fonseca (Visit)
Prediction 71.11%1.41fair odd
EV +9.50%
Edge +6.17%
Kelly +17.60%
Growth +1.67%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.61%70.69%71.43%73.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.331.301.5480.65%75.19%76.92%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yannick Hanfmann (Local): 28.89%; Joao Fonseca (Visit): 71.11%. For Joao Fonseca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.41. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.39%EV -31.52%E -13.30%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.61%EV +9.50%E +6.17%K +17.60%G +1.67% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 22:53 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -20.54%E -7.47%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +2.39%E +1.66%K +5.44%G +0.130% | 5.8% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -20.54%E -7.47%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +2.39%E +1.66%K +5.44%G +0.130% | 5.8% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -20.54%E -7.47%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +2.39%E +1.66%K +5.44%G +0.130% | 5.8% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -17.08%E -5.95%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.90%EV +0.972%E +0.685%K +2.31%G +0.022% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.27%EV -14.48%E -4.89%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.73%EV +0.261%E +0.185%K +0.636%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-17 09:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -13.90%E -4.66%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -0.450%E -0.322%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -16.79%E -5.83%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -3.29%E -2.42%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 14:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -16.79%E -5.83%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -3.29%E -2.42%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -1.76%E -0.519%K -0.735%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.58%EV -4.01%E -2.97%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -3.21%E -0.958%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.01%E -2.97%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-17 12:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.01%E -2.97%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-17 10:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.72%E -3.52%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.14%E -4.65%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +2.57%E +0.724%K +1.01%G +0.026% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +2.57%E +0.724%K +1.01%G +0.026% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 07:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV +2.57%E +0.724%K +1.01%G +0.026% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -8.98%E -7.02%K -32.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV +2.57%E +0.724%K +1.01%G +0.026% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -8.98%E -7.02%K -32.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -8.98%E -7.02%K -32.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.07%EV -11.83%E -9.54%K -49.28%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 1.7% | 2026-05-17 09:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 09:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 09:15 |