La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Yannick Hanfmann v Joao Fonseca
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Yannick Hanfmann (Local)
Predicción 28.89%3.46momio equitativo
EV +4.01%
Ventaja +1.12%
Kelly +1.54%
Crecimiento +0.062%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.38%29.31%28.57%39.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.373.303.453.6042.19%30.28%28.99%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Joao Fonseca (Visitante)
Predicción 71.11%1.41momio equitativo
EV +9.50%
Ventaja +6.17%
Kelly +17.60%
Crecimiento +1.67%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.54
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.61%70.69%71.43%73.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.241.331.301.5480.65%75.19%76.92%64.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.39%EV -31.52%E -13.30%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.61%EV +9.50%E +6.17%K +17.60%G +1.67% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 22:53 |
| 888sport | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -20.54%E -7.47%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +2.39%E +1.66%K +5.44%G +0.130% | 5.8% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -20.54%E -7.47%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +2.39%E +1.66%K +5.44%G +0.130% | 5.8% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -20.54%E -7.47%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +2.39%E +1.66%K +5.44%G +0.130% | 5.8% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| 1xBet | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -17.08%E -5.95%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.90%EV +0.972%E +0.685%K +2.31%G +0.022% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| FanDuel | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.27%EV -14.48%E -4.89%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.73%EV +0.261%E +0.185%K +0.636%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-17 09:14 |
| DraftKings | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -13.90%E -4.66%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -0.450%E -0.322%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Bet Victor | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -16.79%E -5.83%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -3.29%E -2.42%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 14:14 |
| Paddy Power | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -16.79%E -5.83%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -3.29%E -2.42%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Pinnacle | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -1.76%E -0.519%K -0.735%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.58%EV -4.01%E -2.97%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| BetAnything | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -3.21%E -0.958%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.01%E -2.97%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-17 12:35 |
| Bovada | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.01%E -2.97%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-17 10:14 |
| BetMGM | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.72%E -3.52%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Betway | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Neds | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Coral | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| TAB | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.14%E -4.65%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 10:15 |
| Bet Right | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +2.57%E +0.724%K +1.01%G +0.026% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
| Coolbet | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +2.57%E +0.724%K +1.01%G +0.026% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 07:59 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Casumo | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| TABtouch | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Unibet | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Grosvenor | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Bally Bet | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| betPARX | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:05 |
| PMU (FR) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:15 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +4.01%E +1.12%K +1.54%G +0.062% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.27%E -6.41%K -28.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
| NordicBet | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV +2.57%E +0.724%K +1.01%G +0.026% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -8.98%E -7.02%K -32.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Betsson | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV +2.57%E +0.724%K +1.01%G +0.026% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -8.98%E -7.02%K -32.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -8.98%E -7.02%K -32.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.07%EV -11.83%E -9.54%K -49.28%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 1.7% | 2026-05-17 09:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 09:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 09:15 |