Language:English
Luciano Darderi v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luciano Darderi (Local)
Prediction 36.49%2.74fair odd
EV +35.02%
Edge +9.47%
Kelly +12.97%
Growth +4.54%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.25%38.12%36.43%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.482.583.7052.63%40.24%38.83%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 63.51%1.57fair odd
EV +23.20%
Edge +11.96%
Kelly +24.69%
Growth +5.73%
assuming max odds 1.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%61.88%63.57%74.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.551.471.9480.00%64.36%68.03%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luciano Darderi (Local): 36.49%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 63.51%. For Luciano Darderi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +35.02%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -28.48%E -14.53%K -29.66%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV +23.20%E +11.96%K +24.69%G +5.73% | 2.6% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -30.66%E -16.14%K -34.07%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +20.66%E +10.88%K +22.96%G +4.74% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 18:16 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -30.66%E -16.14%K -34.07%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV +18.76%E +10.03%K +21.56%G +4.05% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 18:17 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -29.20%E -15.05%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV +18.12%E +9.74%K +21.07%G +3.82% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 18:17 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -29.20%E -15.05%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV +18.12%E +9.74%K +21.07%G +3.82% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -27.75%E -14.01%K -28.31%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV +17.49%E +9.45%K +20.58%G +3.60% | 4.6% | 2026-05-21 18:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -28.84%E -14.79%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +17.49%E +9.45%K +20.58%G +3.60% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 18:07 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -27.02%E -13.51%K -27.02%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +16.22%E +8.86%K +19.54%G +3.17% | 4.6% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -27.02%E -13.51%K -27.02%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +16.22%E +8.86%K +19.54%G +3.17% | 4.6% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -28.84%E -14.79%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV +16.22%E +8.86%K +19.54%G +3.17% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 18:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.80%EV -29.93%E -15.59%K -32.54%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV +16.22%E +8.86%K +19.54%G +3.17% | 6.7% | 2026-05-21 18:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -27.38%E -13.76%K -27.66%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV +15.58%E +8.56%K +19.00%G +2.96% | 5.2% | 2026-05-21 18:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -28.48%E -14.53%K -29.66%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV +15.58%E +8.56%K +19.00%G +2.96% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 18:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -28.84%E -14.79%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV +15.58%E +8.56%K +19.00%G +2.96% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -28.11%E -14.27%K -28.98%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV +14.95%E +8.26%K +18.46%G +2.76% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -28.84%E -14.79%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV +13.04%E +7.33%K +16.72%G +2.18% | 7.5% | 2026-05-21 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -28.84%E -14.79%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV +13.04%E +7.33%K +16.72%G +2.18% | 7.5% | 2026-05-21 18:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -19.72%E -8.96%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV +7.33%E +4.34%K +10.62%G +0.778% | 4.6% | 2026-05-21 18:27 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -12.42%E -5.17%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -1.56%E -1.01%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -10.59%E -4.32%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -2.83%E -1.85%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.03%E -1.53%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.77%E -3.51%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -5.12%E -1.97%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.37%E -3.61%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -5.12%E -1.97%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.37%E -3.61%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -5.12%E -1.97%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.37%E -3.61%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -5.12%E -1.97%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.37%E -3.61%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -5.12%E -1.97%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.37%E -3.61%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -6.94%E -2.72%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -6.64%E -4.52%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -6.94%E -2.72%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -6.64%E -4.52%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -6.94%E -2.72%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -6.64%E -4.52%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -6.94%E -2.72%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -6.64%E -4.52%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.48%EV -14.24%E -6.06%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.52%EV -6.64%E -4.52%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.354%E +0.129%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.91%E -5.46%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -1.47%E -0.545%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -8.55%E -5.94%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.39%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.55%E -5.94%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.39%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.55%E -5.94%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.77%E -3.51%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -8.55%E -5.94%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -14.24%E -6.06%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.01%EV -8.55%E -5.94%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +5.83%E +2.01%K +3.07%G +0.179% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -9.82%E -6.91%K -23.38%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-21 18:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +2.18%E +0.778%K +1.21%G +0.026% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -9.82%E -6.91%K -23.38%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 18:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +2.18%E +0.778%K +1.21%G +0.026% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -9.82%E -6.91%K -23.38%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +2.18%E +0.778%K +1.21%G +0.026% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -9.82%E -6.91%K -23.38%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +2.18%E +0.778%K +1.21%G +0.026% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -9.82%E -6.91%K -23.38%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +2.18%E +0.778%K +1.21%G +0.026% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -9.82%E -6.91%K -23.38%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -1.47%E -0.545%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -9.82%E -6.91%K -23.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-21 18:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV +0.354%E +0.129%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -10.45%E -7.41%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.72%EV -11.32%E -4.66%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.28%EV -10.45%E -7.41%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +0.354%E +0.129%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -11.09%E -7.92%K -27.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +0.354%E +0.129%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -11.09%E -7.92%K -27.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +0.354%E +0.129%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -11.09%E -7.92%K -27.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -1.47%E -0.545%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -11.09%E -7.92%K -27.72%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -1.47%E -0.545%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -12.36%E -8.96%K -32.52%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV +0.354%E +0.129%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -12.99%E -9.48%K -35.12%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.54%EV +2.91%E +1.03%K +1.60%G +0.046% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.46%EV -13.63%E -10.02%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-21 18:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV +20.42%E +6.19%K +8.88%G +1.81% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -16.80%E -12.83%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV +18.60%E +5.72%K +8.27%G +1.54% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -17.44%E -13.42%K -58.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +24.07%E +7.08%K +10.03%G +2.41% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -18.08%E -14.01%K -62.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-21 18:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +35.02%E +9.47%K +12.97%G +4.54% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -20.62%E -16.49%K -82.46%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60% | 0.9% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23% | 1.1% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 1.2% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30% | 1.7% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.32% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.68% | 1.8% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |
| Novig◎ | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32% | 4.9% | 2026-05-21 18:30 |