Language:English
Ignacio Buse v Jakub Mensik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ignacio Buse (Local)
Prediction 40.68%2.46fair odd
EV +0.079%
Edge +0.032%
Kelly +0.054%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.35%40.62%40.74%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.332.352.4645.45%42.99%42.55%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jakub Mensik (Visit)
Prediction 59.32%1.69fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%59.38%59.26%61.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.581.6565.36%62.93%63.29%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ignacio Buse (Local): 40.68%; Jakub Mensik (Visit): 59.32%. For Ignacio Buse (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.458. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.460, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.079%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV +0.079%E +0.032%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -9.24%E -6.04%K -17.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-20 11:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -0.328%E -0.134%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.36%E -0.984%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.13%E -1.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.36%E -0.984%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.69%E -3.58%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-20 11:08 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.36%E -0.984%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.06%E -5.20%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -2.77%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -7.46%E -4.79%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-20 11:07 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -3.58%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -2.72%E -1.66%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-20 11:08 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -3.58%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -2.72%E -1.66%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 11:08 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.69%E -3.58%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-20 11:08 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.28%E -3.97%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.28%E -3.97%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.28%E -3.97%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -7.46%E -4.79%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -8.06%E -5.20%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-20 11:03 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -4.80%E -2.05%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -6.28%E -3.97%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-20 11:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.91%E -2.41%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.91%E -2.41%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-20 11:08 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.50%E -2.79%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.50%E -2.79%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.50%E -2.79%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.13%E -1.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -2.72%E -1.66%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.91%E -2.41%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-20 11:07 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -9.24%E -6.04%K -17.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-20 11:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.50%E -4.77%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.91%E -2.41%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.50%E -4.77%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.91%E -2.41%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.50%E -4.77%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.50%E -4.77%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-20 11:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-20 11:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00% | 1.6% | 2026-05-20 11:19 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00% | 1.6% | 2026-05-20 11:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00% | 1.6% | 2026-05-20 11:19 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80% | 2.0% | 2026-05-20 11:19 |
| Novig◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95% | 2.3% | 2026-05-20 11:20 |