A Escola das Odds

Ignacio Buse v Jakub Mensik

Início: 2026-05-20 12:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

45 casas de apostas (13 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Ignacio Buse (Local)

Previsão 40.68%2.46odd justa
EV +0.079%
Vantagem +0.032%
Kelly +0.054%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.46

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.35%40.62%40.74%42.41%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.202.332.352.4645.45%42.99%42.55%40.65%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Jakub Mensik (Visitante)

Previsão 59.32%1.69odd justa
EV -2.13%
Vantagem -1.29%
Kelly -3.27%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.65

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
57.59%59.38%59.26%61.65%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.531.591.581.6565.36%62.93%63.29%60.61%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (45 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
DraftKings2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV +0.079%E +0.032%K +0.054%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -9.24%E -6.04%K -17.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-20 11:19
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -0.328%E -0.134%K -0.226%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-20 11:09
Pinnacle2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.36%E -0.984%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.13%E -1.29%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-20 11:09
Bovada2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.36%E -0.984%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.69%E -3.58%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-20 11:08
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.36%E -0.984%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.06%E -5.20%K -14.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
Betclic (FR)2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -2.77%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -7.46%E -4.79%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-20 11:07
LowVig.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -3.58%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -2.72%E -1.66%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-20 11:08
BetOnline.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -3.58%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -2.72%E -1.66%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-20 11:09
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-20 11:08
Hard Rock Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.69%E -3.58%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-20 11:08
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.28%E -3.97%K -10.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-20 11:09
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.28%E -3.97%K -10.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-20 11:09
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.28%E -3.97%K -10.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-20 11:09
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
BetRivers2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
Svenska Spel2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
Bally Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
ATG (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -7.46%E -4.79%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-20 11:09
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -8.06%E -5.20%K -14.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-20 11:03
Codere (IT)2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -4.80%E -2.05%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -6.28%E -3.97%K -10.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-20 11:19
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.91%E -2.41%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-20 11:09
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.91%E -2.41%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-20 11:08
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.50%E -2.79%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 11:09
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.50%E -2.79%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 11:09
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.50%E -2.79%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 11:09
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.43%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-20 11:09
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.13%E -1.29%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-20 11:09
Bet Right2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -2.72%E -1.66%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-20 11:09
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.91%E -2.41%K -6.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 11:09
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-20 11:09
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.87%E -4.38%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-20 11:07
Fliff2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -9.24%E -6.04%K -17.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-20 11:19
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.50%E -4.77%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.91%E -2.41%K -6.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-20 11:09
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.50%E -4.77%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.91%E -2.41%K -6.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-20 11:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.50%E -4.77%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-20 11:09
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.50%E -4.77%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-20 11:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-05-20 11:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00%1.6%2026-05-20 11:19
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00%1.6%2026-05-20 11:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00%1.6%2026-05-20 11:19
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.0%2026-05-20 11:19
Novig2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95%2.3%2026-05-20 11:20