Language:English
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local)
Prediction 39.80%2.51fair odd
EV +1.50%
Edge +0.589%
Kelly +0.969%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.71%39.81%39.68%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.302.5545.45%42.76%43.38%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 60.20%1.66fair odd
EV +0.527%
Edge +0.315%
Kelly +0.786%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%60.19%60.32%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.581.581.6768.97%63.46%63.29%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local): 39.80%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 60.20%. For Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +1.50%E +0.589%K +0.969%G +0.015% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -7.30%E -4.74%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV +0.307%E +0.122%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -9.10%E -6.03%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -0.489%E -0.196%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -6.70%E -4.32%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -0.489%E -0.196%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.71%E -6.47%K -19.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-20 15:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -0.489%E -0.196%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.71%E -6.47%K -19.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -0.489%E -0.196%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -10.91%E -7.37%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -0.489%E -0.196%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -10.91%E -7.37%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -0.489%E -0.196%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -12.72%E -8.77%K -28.26%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-20 15:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.90%E -5.16%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -8.50%E -5.59%K -16.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.28%E -1.35%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.70%E -4.32%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.28%E -1.35%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.70%E -4.32%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.28%E -1.35%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.70%E -4.32%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.28%E -1.35%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.70%E -4.32%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.30%E -4.74%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.90%E -5.16%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -8.50%E -5.59%K -16.35%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.71%E -6.47%K -19.41%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.90%E -5.16%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.90%E -5.16%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.90%E -5.16%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.90%E -5.16%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%EV -6.06%E -2.57%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%EV +0.527%E +0.315%K +0.786%G +0.004% | 2.3% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.29%E -2.70%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -9.71%E -6.47%K -19.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -7.26%E -3.11%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -0.677%E -0.411%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-20 15:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -7.65%E -3.30%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -0.075%E -0.045%K -0.114%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-20 15:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -8.05%E -3.49%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -2.48%E -1.53%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-20 15:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV +0.527%E +0.315%K +0.786%G +0.004% | 3.4% | 2026-05-20 15:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.48%E -1.53%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-20 15:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.48%E -1.53%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-20 15:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.69%E -2.30%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-20 15:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.69%E -2.30%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.37%EV -9.10%E -6.03%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.25%E -4.06%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.88%E -1.15%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-20 15:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.25%E -4.06%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.88%E -1.15%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-20 15:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -0.677%E -0.411%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -1.28%E -0.780%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-20 15:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.48%E -1.53%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 15:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.48%E -1.53%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 15:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.09%E -1.92%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-20 15:28 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.69%E -2.30%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-20 15:28 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-20 15:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-20 15:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -10.91%E -7.37%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -11.24%E -5.04%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -1.28%E -0.780%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -11.24%E -5.04%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -1.28%E -0.780%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -11.24%E -5.04%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -1.28%E -0.780%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -11.24%E -5.04%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -1.28%E -0.780%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -11.63%E -5.24%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -1.88%E -1.15%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-20 15:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -11.63%E -5.24%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -1.88%E -1.15%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-20 15:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -12.43%E -5.65%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -0.677%E -0.411%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-20 15:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -12.43%E -5.65%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -2.48%E -1.53%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -12.43%E -5.65%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -3.69%E -2.30%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-20 15:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.56% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.44% | 0.1% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 1.1% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51% | 1.2% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Novig◎ | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51% | 5.9% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.33% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.67% | 7.7% | 2026-05-20 15:30 |