A Escola das Odds

Fabian Marozsan v Taylor Fritz

Início: 2026-06-18 09:34 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Fabian Marozsan (Local)

Previsão 22.25%4.49odd justa
EV +6.79%
Vantagem +1.41%
Kelly +1.79%
Crescimento +0.121%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.17%22.21%22.22%24.75%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.804.384.454.8026.32%22.85%22.47%20.83%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Taylor Fritz (Visitante)

Previsão 77.75%1.29odd justa
EV -2.03%
Vantagem -1.61%
Kelly -7.82%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.26

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
75.25%77.79%77.78%79.83%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.171.211.201.2685.47%82.66%83.33%79.37%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Pinnacle4.80I 20.83%NM 20.40%EV +6.79%E +1.41%K +1.79%G +0.121%1.23I 81.30%NM 79.60%EV -4.36%E -3.55%K -18.98%G +0.000%2.1%2026-06-18 09:29
Betclic (FR)4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +5.68%E +1.20%K +1.51%G +0.086%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-18 09:28
FanDuel4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +4.57%E +0.971%K +1.23%G +0.056%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 09:30
Winamax (DE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -5.14%E -4.22%K -23.37%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-18 09:29
Unibet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
LeoVegas4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
Casumo4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
LiveScore Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
Unibet (NL)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
Unibet (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
LeoVegas (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
TABtouch4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
Grosvenor4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
Virgin Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
BetRivers4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
Bally Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
ATG (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
Svenska Spel4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
betPARX4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 09:30
NetBet (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.25%E -6.99%K -45.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-18 09:30
SportsBet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV +2.34%E +0.509%K +0.650%G +0.015%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -9.03%E -7.72%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-18 09:30
Bovada4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.14%E -4.22%K -23.37%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-18 09:29
Coolbet4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.92%E -4.89%K -28.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-18 09:30
Bet Right4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.92%E -4.89%K -28.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-18 09:30
888sport4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:29
William Hill4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:29
Sky Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:30
BoyleSports4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:30
Hard Rock Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:30
888sport (SE)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:29
Mr Green (SE)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:29
Paddy Power4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +0.115%E +0.026%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -9.03%E -7.72%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-18 09:29
ReBet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.11%E -0.479%K -0.620%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.92%E -4.89%K -28.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-18 09:29
Betr (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -2.11%E -0.479%K -0.620%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-18 09:29
Unibet (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -2.11%E -0.479%K -0.620%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-18 09:29
PMU (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -2.11%E -0.479%K -0.620%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -9.03%E -7.72%K -53.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-18 09:30
Tipico (DE)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -2.11%E -0.479%K -0.620%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -9.03%E -7.72%K -53.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-18 09:30
BetOnline.ag4.34I 23.04%NM 22.22%EV -3.44%E -0.794%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.78%EV -3.59%E -2.89%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-18 09:30
LowVig.ag4.34I 23.04%NM 22.22%EV -3.44%E -0.794%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.78%EV -3.59%E -2.89%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-18 09:30
1xBet4.34I 23.04%NM 22.08%EV -3.44%E -0.794%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.92%EV -4.36%E -3.55%K -18.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-18 09:29
BetMGM4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -3.67%E -0.847%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.16%EV -5.92%E -4.89%K -28.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-18 09:30
betfred_uk4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -3.67%E -0.847%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-18 09:30
Everygame4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -4.33%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -8.25%E -6.99%K -45.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-18 09:29
BetUS4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -5.45%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.59%E -2.89%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-18 09:30
Dabble (AU)4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -5.45%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.14%E -4.22%K -23.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 09:30
BetAnything4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -6.56%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.59%E -2.89%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-18 09:30
PlayUp4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -6.56%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.14%E -4.22%K -23.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-18 09:30
Coral4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -6.56%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-18 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -6.56%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-18 09:30
GTbets4.18I 23.92%NM 23.16%EV -7.00%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.84%EV -2.03%E -1.61%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.3%2026-06-18 09:29
DraftKings4.18I 23.92%NM 22.74%EV -7.00%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.26%EV -4.36%E -3.55%K -18.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-18 09:30
Unibet (UK)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.78%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.59%E -2.89%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-18 09:30
Neds4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.78%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-18 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.78%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-18 09:30
Betway4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.81%E -2.25%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-18 09:30
Fanatics4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.59%E -2.89%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:30
PointsBet (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.59%E -2.89%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:30
Winamax (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.59%E -2.89%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:29
theScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.59%E -2.89%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 09:30
TAB4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.14%E -4.22%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-18 09:30
Bet Victor4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.70%E -5.58%K -33.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-18 09:30
NordicBet3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -13.23%E -3.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -5.14%E -4.22%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-18 09:30
Betsson3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -13.23%E -3.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -5.14%E -4.22%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-18 09:30
Caesars3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -15.46%E -4.07%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -2.81%E -2.25%K -11.24%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-18 09:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%0.6%2026-06-18 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%0.6%2026-06-18 09:30
Matchbook5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%0.6%2026-06-18 09:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%0.6%2026-06-18 09:30
Smarkets4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.73%2.8%2026-06-18 09:30
Novig4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%4.8%2026-06-18 09:30