La escuela de los momios

Tomas Machac v Zizou Bergs

Inicio: 2026-05-24 11:28 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Tomas Machac (Local)

Predicción 55.89%1.79momio equitativo
EV -2.20%
Ventaja -1.26%
Kelly -2.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.69%56.02%55.84%58.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.611.691.701.7562.11%59.05%58.82%57.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Zizou Bergs (Visitante)

Predicción 44.11%2.27momio equitativo
EV +0.139%
Ventaja +0.061%
Kelly +0.109%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.86%43.98%44.16%45.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.032.152.142.2749.26%46.54%46.73%44.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -4.99%E -2.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV +0.139%E +0.061%K +0.109%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-24 11:20
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -9.46%E -5.84%K -15.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -0.743%E -0.330%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 11:20
Codere (IT)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -4.99%E -2.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -2.07%E -0.931%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-24 11:10
FanDuel1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -6.11%E -3.64%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -2.07%E -0.931%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-24 11:20
Pinnacle1.73I 57.80%NM 56.09%EV -3.32%E -1.92%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.91%EV -2.51%E -1.13%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-24 11:15
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -3.88%E -2.25%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -2.95%E -1.34%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-24 11:15
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.55%E -3.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.95%E -1.34%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-24 11:19
GTbets1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.11%E -3.64%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.95%E -1.34%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 11:09
Bet Right1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.95%E -1.34%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 11:20
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.95%E -1.34%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 11:20
Betr (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.23%E -4.35%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -2.95%E -1.34%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-24 11:20
PointsBet (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.79%E -4.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.95%E -1.34%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-24 11:20
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -10.02%E -6.23%K -16.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -2.95%E -1.34%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-24 11:20
LowVig.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -3.88%E -2.25%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.99%EV -3.39%E -1.55%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-24 11:15
BetOnline.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -3.88%E -2.25%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.99%EV -3.39%E -1.55%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-24 11:16
MyBookie.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -6.11%E -3.64%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -3.39%E -1.55%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:13
NetBet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -7.79%E -4.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -4.27%E -1.97%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-24 11:11
Hard Rock Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 11:19
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.99%E -2.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 11:15
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.99%E -2.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 11:20
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.55%E -3.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-24 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.11%E -3.64%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 11:16
Neds1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.11%E -3.64%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 11:16
Unibet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-24 11:09
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
TABtouch1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
LiveScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
Casumo1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
Virgin Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
Grosvenor1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
BetRivers1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:14
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
Bally Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
betPARX1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:19
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
ATG (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.60%E -2.61%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 11:20
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -2.20%E -1.26%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -6.04%E -2.83%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-24 11:20
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.76%E -1.59%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 11:20
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.32%E -1.92%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 11:15
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.32%E -1.92%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 11:16
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.32%E -1.92%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 11:16
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.32%E -1.92%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 11:15
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-24 11:20
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.43%E -2.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-24 11:20
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.99%E -2.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-24 11:08
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.99%E -2.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-24 11:19
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.99%E -2.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-24 11:19
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-24 11:18
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-24 11:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.79%E -4.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-24 11:20
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.79%E -4.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-24 11:20
Fliff1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -10.02%E -6.23%K -16.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -7.36%E -3.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-24 11:20
Betclic (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.01%EV -7.23%E -4.35%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 44.99%EV -10.45%E -5.15%K -10.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-24 11:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-05-24 11:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-05-24 11:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-05-24 11:20
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-05-24 11:20
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%2.4%2026-05-24 11:20
Novig1.74I 57.47%NM 55.73%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.27%3.1%2026-05-24 11:20