L’École des cotes

Pablo Llamas Ruiz v Thiago Agustin Tirante

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-24 09:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Local)

Prévision 47.41%2.11cote équitable
EV -1.87%
Avantage -0.903%
Kelly -1.75%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.07

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
45.91%47.38%47.37%48.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.912.002.002.0752.36%50.06%50.00%48.31%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visiteur)

Prévision 52.59%1.90cote équitable
EV -1.12%
Avantage -0.598%
Kelly -1.28%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.88

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
51.04%52.62%52.63%54.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.731.811.811.8857.80%55.33%55.25%53.19%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%EV -1.87%E -0.903%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -3.75%E -2.05%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-24 08:50
1xBet2.05I 48.78%NM 47.57%EV -2.82%E -1.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.43%EV -2.18%E -1.17%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-24 08:10
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 47.30%EV -2.82%E -1.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.70%EV -3.23%E -1.75%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-24 08:10
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.82%E -1.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-24 08:39
BetAnything2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.82%E -1.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-24 08:30
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.82%E -1.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.96%E -4.55%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 07:39
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.82%E -1.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -8.49%E -4.88%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 14:25
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.24%E -2.10%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.28%E -2.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-24 07:50
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.24%E -2.10%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.28%E -2.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-24 07:50
Bet Right2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.24%E -2.10%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 08:10
Unibet (UK)2.01I 49.75%NM 47.79%EV -4.71%E -2.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.21%EV -3.23%E -1.75%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-24 08:30
Codere (IT)2.01I 49.75%NM 47.79%EV -4.71%E -2.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.21%EV -3.23%E -1.75%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-24 07:39
DraftKings2.01I 49.75%NM 46.97%EV -4.71%E -2.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -6.38%E -3.59%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 06:20
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -2.18%E -1.17%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-24 07:30
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.28%E -2.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-24 07:40
Unibet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
Casumo2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
Unibet (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
Grosvenor2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
LeoVegas2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
TABtouch2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
Unibet (NL)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
GTbets2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-22 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
betPARX2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
Svenska Spel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
ATG (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
Bally Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 08:00
PlayUp2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 08:39
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:40
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:40
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:49
TAB2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:50
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:40
Hard Rock Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:59
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:50
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:50
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:50
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:50
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -6.38%E -3.59%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 08:30
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.19%E -2.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.01%E -5.21%K -12.35%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-24 08:30
NordicBet1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -5.66%E -2.84%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -3.75%E -2.05%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-24 07:39
Betsson1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -5.66%E -2.84%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -3.75%E -2.05%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-24 07:40
MyBookie.ag1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -5.66%E -2.84%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -3.75%E -2.05%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-24 07:49
Betr (AU)1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.66%E -2.84%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.86%E -3.27%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-24 08:10
LiveScore Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -6.13%E -3.10%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -5.86%E -3.27%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-24 08:00
Virgin Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -6.13%E -3.10%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -5.86%E -3.27%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-24 08:00
NetBet (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -6.13%E -3.10%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -6.38%E -3.59%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-24 08:30
Unibet (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -6.61%E -3.35%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -4.81%E -2.66%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 07:40
PMU (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -6.61%E -3.35%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -5.86%E -3.27%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-24 08:00
Betclic (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -7.08%E -3.61%K -7.38%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -1.12%E -0.598%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-24 08:46
Neds1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -7.08%E -3.61%K -7.38%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -3.75%E -2.05%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-24 07:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -7.08%E -3.61%K -7.38%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -3.75%E -2.05%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-24 07:30
Winamax (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -7.08%E -3.61%K -7.38%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -4.28%E -2.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 07:39
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.56%E -3.88%K -7.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -3.75%E -2.05%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 07:29
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.56%E -3.88%K -7.95%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.96%E -4.55%K -10.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-24 02:38
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.45%E -4.95%K -10.39%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-24 07:30
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.45%E -4.95%K -10.39%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.33%E -2.96%K -6.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-24 07:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.37%0.2%2026-05-24 08:50
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.37%0.2%2026-05-24 08:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%0.6%2026-05-24 08:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%0.6%2026-05-24 08:50
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 46.70%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30%2.0%2026-05-24 08:50
Novig2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%3.0%2026-05-24 08:40