Language:English
Moise Kouame v Alejandro Tabilo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Moise Kouame (Local)
Prediction 21.78%4.59fair odd
EV +2.36%
Edge +0.503%
Kelly +0.638%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.20%21.87%21.74%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.354.404.7025.32%22.99%22.73%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alejandro Tabilo (Visit)
Prediction 78.22%1.28fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -8.90%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.96%78.13%78.26%79.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.221.221.2584.03%82.16%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moise Kouame (Local): 21.78%; Alejandro Tabilo (Visit): 78.22%. For Moise Kouame (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.59. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.36%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +2.36%E +0.503%K +0.638%G +0.015% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.92%E -5.81%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:02 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV +1.27%E +0.274%K +0.349%G +0.004% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%EV -6.14%E -5.11%K -30.68%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-30 14:08 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV +0.184%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-30 14:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.184%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.14%E -5.11%K -30.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-30 14:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.18%EV -1.12%E -0.247%K -0.317%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.82%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.18%EV -1.12%E -0.247%K -0.317%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.82%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26%EV -2.22%E -1.78%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -3.01%E -2.42%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-30 14:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.14%E -5.11%K -30.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-30 14:07 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.14%E -5.11%K -30.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.99%E -0.443%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.14%E -5.11%K -30.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-30 14:07 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV -4.17%E -0.948%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01%EV -3.01%E -2.42%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -4.17%E -0.948%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -3.79%E -3.08%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-30 14:08 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.17%E -0.948%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.17%E -0.948%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.17%E -0.948%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -5.26%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.26%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.34I 23.04%NM 21.94%EV -5.48%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.06%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -6.35%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -6.35%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 14:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -6.35%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -6.35%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.14%E -5.11%K -30.68%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -6.35%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.14%E -5.11%K -30.68%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -7.44%E -1.75%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.01%E -2.42%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -7.44%E -1.75%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -7.44%E -1.75%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -8.53%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.01%E -2.42%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-30 14:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.53%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 14:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.53%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.53%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.53%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.53%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -8.53%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.35%E -4.42%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.53%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.14%E -5.11%K -30.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -10.71%E -2.61%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.54%EV -11.58%E -2.85%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.46%EV -2.22%E -1.78%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.01%E -2.42%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.01%E -2.42%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.57%E -3.75%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.14%E -5.11%K -30.68%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-30 14:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -13.97%E -3.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -2.22%E -1.78%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 4.57I 21.88%NM 21.75% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.25% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.23% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.77% | 2.4% | 2026-05-30 14:10 |