Language:English
Lorenzo Sonego v Tommy Paul
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lorenzo Sonego (Local)
Prediction 15.86%6.31fair odd
EV +3.08%
Edge +0.474%
Kelly +0.560%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.47%15.97%15.73%18.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.865.806.5020.00%17.07%17.24%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tommy Paul (Visit)
Prediction 84.14%1.19fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -9.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.43%84.03%84.27%85.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.131.131.1790.91%88.31%88.50%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lorenzo Sonego (Local): 15.86%; Tommy Paul (Visit): 84.14%. For Lorenzo Sonego (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.31. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +3.08%E +0.474%K +0.560%G +0.017% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-27 17:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +3.08%E +0.474%K +0.560%G +0.017% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-27 17:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.08%E +0.474%K +0.560%G +0.017% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.60%E -5.95%K -60.03%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.08%E +0.474%K +0.560%G +0.017% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.60%E -5.95%K -60.03%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.08%E +0.474%K +0.560%G +0.017% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.60%E -5.95%K -60.03%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.08%E +0.474%K +0.560%G +0.017% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.60%E -5.95%K -60.03%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +3.08%E +0.474%K +0.560%G +0.017% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.44%E -6.77%K -74.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.47I 15.46%NM 14.87%EV +2.61%E +0.403%K +0.477%G +0.012% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.13%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-27 17:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +1.50%E +0.234%K +0.277%G +0.004% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.76%E -5.14%K -48.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.27I 15.95%NM 15.50%EV -0.565%E -0.090%K -0.107%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.50%EV -3.24%E -2.82%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV -0.882%E -0.141%K -0.168%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.46%EV -3.24%E -2.82%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -1.68%E -0.270%K -0.322%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.85%E -0.808%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.85%E -0.808%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.76%E -5.14%K -48.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.85%E -0.808%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.76%E -5.14%K -48.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-27 17:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.85%E -0.808%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.76%E -5.14%K -48.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-27 17:38 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.85%E -0.808%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.76%E -5.14%K -48.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-27 17:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.85%E -0.808%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.76%E -5.14%K -48.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -4.85%E -0.808%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.60%E -5.95%K -60.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.97I 16.75%NM 16.39%EV -5.32%E -0.892%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.61%EV -1.55%E -1.33%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -5.48%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -5.48%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.19%EV -6.43%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.81%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV -6.43%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.93%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -6.43%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -5.76%E -5.14%K -48.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-27 17:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -6.43%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -5.76%E -5.14%K -48.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-27 17:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -6.43%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -5.76%E -5.14%K -48.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -6.43%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -5.76%E -5.14%K -48.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -8.02%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.81%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.81%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.81%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.81%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.81%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.79%EV -10.40%E -1.84%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.21%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.01%EV -11.82%E -2.13%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.99%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -12.78%E -2.32%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -14.36%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -3.24%E -2.82%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -14.36%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -3.24%E -2.82%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-27 17:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -20.71%E -4.14%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.08%E -3.58%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-27 17:38 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -20.71%E -4.14%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -4.92%E -4.35%K -37.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 0.2% | 2026-05-27 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 0.9% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 0.9% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 0.9% | 2026-05-27 17:40 |
| Novig◎ | 6.54I 15.29%NM 15.06% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.94% | 1.5% | 2026-05-27 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.36% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.64% | 2.4% | 2026-05-27 17:50 |