La escuela de los momios

Jaime Faria v Frances Tiafoe

Inicio: 2026-05-30 18:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Jaime Faria (Local)

Predicción 37.92%2.64momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.395%
Kelly -0.640%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.71%37.92%37.89%39.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.382.492.502.6142.02%40.14%40.00%38.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Frances Tiafoe (Visitante)

Predicción 62.08%1.61momio equitativo
EV -2.53%
Ventaja -1.61%
Kelly -4.45%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.87%62.08%62.11%63.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.451.531.541.5768.97%65.16%64.94%63.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -1.03%E -0.395%K -0.640%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-30 18:10
LowVig.ag2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -1.03%E -0.395%K -0.640%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-30 18:10
Pinnacle2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -1.41%E -0.542%K -0.881%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-30 18:10
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -1.41%E -0.542%K -0.881%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.64%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-30 18:09
FanDuel2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -2.17%E -0.840%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -5.64%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-30 18:10
SportsBet2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV -2.93%E -1.14%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.90%EV -6.26%E -4.14%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:01
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-30 18:09
BetAnything2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-30 18:09
Unibet (UK)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -3.78%E -2.44%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-30 18:09
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -3.78%E -2.44%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-30 18:10
Bovada2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-30 18:09
Winamax (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-30 18:09
Tipico (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 18:10
BetMGM2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -3.68%E -1.45%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 18:10
Marathon Bet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.62%EV -4.44%E -1.76%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.38%EV -5.64%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-30 18:09
NetBet (FR)2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -4.44%E -1.76%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -6.26%E -4.14%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 18:09
1xBet2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -4.82%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-30 18:10
MyBookie.ag2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV -4.82%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-30 18:08
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-30 18:10
NordicBet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:09
Betsson2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
Unibet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 18:10
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 18:10
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 18:09
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 18:10
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 18:10
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 18:10
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.64%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.64%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 18:10
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.64%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 18:10
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.64%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 18:10
TAB2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.64%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 18:10
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-30 18:10
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.12%E -5.49%K -16.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.12%E -5.49%K -16.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 18:10
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.98%E -6.89%K -22.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 18:10
GTbets2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -5.96%E -2.40%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 18:10
Bet Right2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.96%E -2.40%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:10
DraftKings2.46I 40.65%NM 38.50%EV -6.72%E -2.73%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.50%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-30 18:10
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
LeoVegas2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:09
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:05
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:09
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
Bally Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
Hard Rock Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:10
Everygame2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 18:09
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 18:10
Fliff2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-30 18:09
TABtouch2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.86%E -3.23%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:10
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.99%E -3.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:09
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.99%E -3.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:10
LiveScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.99%E -3.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.40%E -2.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:10
Caesars2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.99%E -3.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-30 18:09
Bet Victor2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.99%E -3.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-30 18:09
Betway2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -9.75%E -4.10%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 18:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-05-30 18:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-05-30 18:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-05-30 18:10
Matchbook2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-05-30 18:10
Novig2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85%1.7%2026-05-30 18:10
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01%2.4%2026-05-30 18:10