L’École des cotes

Jacob Fearnley v Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-26 16:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jacob Fearnley (Local)

Prévision 23.17%4.32cote équitable
EV +3.13%
Avantage +0.702%
Kelly +0.906%
Croissance +0.028%

avec la cote maximale 4.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.38%23.29%23.11%24.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.064.104.4526.67%24.61%24.39%22.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Visiteur)

Prévision 76.83%1.30cote équitable
EV -3.20%
Avantage -2.54%
Kelly -12.31%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.26

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
75.10%76.71%76.89%78.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.211.241.241.2682.64%80.70%80.65%79.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
SportsBet4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV +3.13%E +0.702%K +0.906%G +0.028%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -7.04%E -5.82%K -33.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-26 15:12
1xBet4.34I 23.04%NM 22.08%EV +0.576%E +0.133%K +0.172%G +0.001%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.92%EV -5.50%E -4.48%K -23.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-26 15:50
Pinnacle4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV -0.351%E -0.082%K -0.106%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.34%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-26 15:50
FanDuel4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -0.351%E -0.082%K -0.106%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.50%E -4.48%K -23.93%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-26 15:10
Bet Right4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -1.51%E -0.355%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.50%E -4.48%K -23.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-26 15:50
Unibet (UK)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -2.67%E -0.635%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-26 15:09
Winamax (DE)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -2.67%E -0.635%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-26 15:10
Codere (IT)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -2.67%E -0.635%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-26 15:10
Paddy Power4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -2.67%E -0.635%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-26 15:10
DraftKings4.19I 23.87%NM 22.55%EV -2.90%E -0.692%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-26 15:10
BetOnline.ag4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -3.60%E -0.864%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-26 15:10
LowVig.ag4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -3.60%E -0.864%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-26 15:10
Betclic (FR)4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV -3.83%E -0.922%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-26 15:09
Fanatics4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -3.83%E -0.922%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-26 15:10
Betr (AU)4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -3.83%E -0.922%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-26 15:50
PointsBet (AU)4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -3.83%E -0.922%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-26 15:49
BetAnything4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-26 15:50
Casumo4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
LeoVegas4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
Unibet (NL)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
Grosvenor4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
TABtouch4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
BetRivers4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
Unibet (SE)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
MyBookie.ag4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:09
Bally Bet4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
betPARX4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
ATG (SE)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
Svenska Spel4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
Tipico (DE)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 15:10
NetBet (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 15:10
Fliff4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -6.14%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-26 15:10
PlayUp4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
888sport4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
Bovada4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:19
Mr Green (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:10
888sport (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 15:09
Winamax (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-26 15:10
theScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-26 15:10
Hard Rock Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.74%E -3.82%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-26 15:10
Betway4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-26 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.30%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-26 15:30
PMU (FR)3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -8.46%E -2.14%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -5.50%E -4.48%K -23.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-26 15:10
LiveScore Bet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -8.46%E -2.14%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -5.50%E -4.48%K -23.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-26 15:10
Virgin Bet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -8.46%E -2.14%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -5.50%E -4.48%K -23.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-26 15:10
BetMGM3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -9.62%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-26 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -11.94%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-26 15:10
Neds3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -11.94%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-26 15:10
Ladbrokes (UK)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.94%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-26 15:10
Coral3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.94%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-26 15:10
Everygame3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.94%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-26 15:10
Caesars3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.94%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-26 15:10
Bet Victor3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -13.10%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-26 15:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%0.6%2026-05-26 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%0.6%2026-05-26 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%0.6%2026-05-26 15:50
Matchbook4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%0.6%2026-05-26 15:50
Smarkets4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50%1.1%2026-05-26 15:40
Novig4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74%1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26%2.2%2026-05-26 15:50