Language:English
Alexandre Muller v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexandre Muller (Local)
Prediction 18.47%5.41fair odd
EV +20.07%
Edge +3.09%
Kelly +3.65%
Growth +0.733%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.47%18.30%18.70%21.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.225.036.5023.81%19.14%19.88%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit)
Prediction 81.53%1.23fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -15.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.80%81.70%81.30%85.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.151.151.1990.91%86.68%86.96%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexandre Muller (Local): 18.47%; Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit): 81.53%. For Alexandre Muller (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.41. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.07%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +20.07%E +3.09%K +3.65%G +0.733% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -10.32%E -9.38%K -103.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-26 11:48 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +20.07%E +3.09%K +3.65%G +0.733% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -10.32%E -9.38%K -103.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-26 11:48 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.87%EV +13.61%E +2.21%K +2.64%G +0.360% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.13%EV -5.43%E -4.68%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-26 10:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +10.84%E +1.81%K +2.17%G +0.235% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-26 07:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.32%EV +9.91%E +1.67%K +2.00%G +0.199% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.68%EV -5.43%E -4.68%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-26 08:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +7.14%E +1.23%K +1.49%G +0.106% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-26 08:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +7.14%E +1.23%K +1.49%G +0.106% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -7.06%E -6.19%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV +7.14%E +1.23%K +1.49%G +0.106% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -8.69%E -7.76%K -72.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-26 11:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV +6.40%E +1.11%K +1.35%G +0.086% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV +6.40%E +1.11%K +1.35%G +0.086% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV +3.45%E +0.616%K +0.749%G +0.026% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV +3.45%E +0.616%K +0.749%G +0.026% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV +3.45%E +0.616%K +0.749%G +0.026% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-26 07:29 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV +3.45%E +0.616%K +0.749%G +0.026% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-26 08:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.53I 18.08%NM 17.46%EV +2.15%E +0.390%K +0.475%G +0.010% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.54%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-25 14:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +1.60%E +0.291%K +0.356%G +0.006% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 11:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +1.60%E +0.291%K +0.356%G +0.006% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +1.60%E +0.291%K +0.356%G +0.006% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +1.60%E +0.291%K +0.356%G +0.006% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.06%E -6.19%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +1.60%E +0.291%K +0.356%G +0.006% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.06%E -6.19%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-23 17:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +1.60%E +0.291%K +0.356%G +0.006% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -7.87%E -6.97%K -60.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-25 14:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +1.60%E +0.291%K +0.356%G +0.006% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -8.69%E -7.76%K -72.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -3.02%E -0.575%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.43%E -4.68%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 10:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.02%E -0.575%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.94%E -0.758%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.43%E -4.68%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.79%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.79%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.79%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.79%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.79%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.03I 19.88%NM 19.00%EV -7.08%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.00%EV -3.80%E -3.22%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -2.98%E -2.51%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.80%E -3.22%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.80%E -3.22%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-21 19:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-21 19:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.06%E -6.19%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.06%E -6.19%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-26 07:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.06%E -6.19%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.25%EV -8.56%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.75%EV -3.80%E -3.22%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.59%EV -8.56%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.41%EV -7.87%E -6.97%K -60.57%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -9.48%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -9.48%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -7.87%E -6.97%K -60.57%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -11.33%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -3.80%E -3.22%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -11.33%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -11.33%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.43%E -4.68%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -11.33%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.43%E -4.68%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -11.33%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -7.06%E -6.19%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -12.25%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -3.80%E -3.22%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -12.25%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -3.80%E -3.22%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -12.25%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.94%EV -12.25%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.06%EV -9.50%E -8.56%K -86.41%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -4.61%E -3.94%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -16.87%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.65%EV -6.24%E -5.43%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -22.41%E -5.34%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 78.80%EV -7.87%E -6.97%K -60.57%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 1.1% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 1.1% | 2026-05-26 11:30 |
| Novig◎ | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.90% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.10% | 1.1% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.28% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.72% | 3.3% | 2026-05-26 11:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46% | 3.7% | 2026-05-26 11:49 |