Language:English
Pablo Carreno Busta v Denis Shapovalov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pablo Carreno Busta (Local)
Prediction 32.97%3.03fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.364%
Kelly -0.545%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.51%33.06%32.95%36.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.872.853.0038.17%34.87%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denis Shapovalov (Visit)
Prediction 67.03%1.49fair odd
EV +0.545%
Edge +0.364%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.59%66.94%67.05%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.421.5073.53%70.59%70.42%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pablo Carreno Busta (Local): 32.97%; Denis Shapovalov (Visit): 67.03%. For Denis Shapovalov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.545%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -13.62%E -5.20%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV +0.545%E +0.364%K +1.09%G +0.006% | 4.8% | 2026-02-24 08:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV -2.74%E -0.928%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05%EV -2.81%E -1.94%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-02-24 09:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -5.71%E -2.00%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -2.81%E -1.94%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-24 09:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -5.71%E -2.00%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -2.81%E -1.94%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-24 09:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-24 09:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-24 08:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 05:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.09%E -0.364%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-24 08:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.74%E -0.928%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-24 09:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.79%EV -4.06%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.21%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-24 09:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-24 08:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.05%E -1.75%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-24 08:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-24 08:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.68%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-24 08:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.79%EV -4.72%E -1.63%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.21%EV -5.49%E -3.89%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-24 09:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.49%E -3.89%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-24 08:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.09%E -0.364%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-24 09:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -1.75%E -0.587%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-24 08:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-24 08:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-24 08:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-24 05:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-24 08:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.68%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-24 09:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.68%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-24 05:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.68%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-24 05:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-24 05:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-24 05:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -6.83%E -4.91%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-24 08:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -1.09%E -0.364%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.50%E -5.43%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 09:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.50%E -5.43%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-24 09:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.79%EV -3.07%E -1.04%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.21%EV -8.17%E -5.96%K -22.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-24 08:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -8.84%E -6.50%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-24 09:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-02-24 09:54 |