L’École des cotes

Pablo Carreno Busta v Denis Shapovalov

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-24 10:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

51 opérateurs (18 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Pablo Carreno Busta (Local)

Prévision 32.97%3.03cote équitable
EV -1.09%
Avantage -0.364%
Kelly -0.545%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.51%33.06%32.95%36.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.622.872.853.0038.17%34.87%35.09%33.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Denis Shapovalov (Visiteur)

Prévision 67.03%1.49cote équitable
EV +0.545%
Avantage +0.364%
Kelly +1.09%
Croissance +0.006%

avec la cote maximale 1.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
63.59%66.94%67.05%68.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.361.421.421.5073.53%70.59%70.42%66.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (51 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -13.62%E -5.20%K -8.41%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV +0.545%E +0.364%K +1.09%G +0.006%4.8%2026-02-24 08:15
Pinnacle2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV -2.74%E -0.928%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05%EV -2.81%E -1.94%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-24 09:20
LowVig.ag2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -5.71%E -2.00%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -2.81%E -1.94%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-24 09:49
BetOnline.ag2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -5.71%E -2.00%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -2.81%E -1.94%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-24 09:49
DraftKings2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-24 09:53
BetUS2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-24 08:39
Virgin Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
TABtouch2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
Grosvenor2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
LiveScore Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
LeoVegas (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
Unibet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
Unibet (NL)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
Unibet (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
BetRivers2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
LeoVegas2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
Casumo2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
Bally Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
betPARX2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
Svenska Spel2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
ATG (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:34
BetMGM2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.15%E -2.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 05:10
Winamax (DE)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.09%E -0.364%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-24 08:44
Bovada2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.74%E -0.928%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-24 09:54
GTbets2.91I 34.36%NM 32.79%EV -4.06%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.21%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-24 09:55
Fanatics2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-24 08:40
Bet Right2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.05%E -1.75%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-24 08:39
theScore Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 08:44
PlayUp2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.68%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-24 08:39
Caesars2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-24 05:34
Marathon Bet2.89I 34.60%NM 32.79%EV -4.72%E -1.63%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.21%EV -5.49%E -3.89%K -13.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 09:25
Betr (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.49%E -3.89%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-24 08:40
1xBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.09%E -0.364%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-24 09:54
FanDuel2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -1.75%E -0.587%K -0.884%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 08:39
Betsson2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 08:40
NordicBet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 08:39
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 05:34
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 05:35
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 05:34
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 05:34
PointsBet (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-24 08:39
Bet Victor2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.68%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-24 09:54
Coral2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.68%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-24 05:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.68%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-24 05:34
Ladbrokes (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-24 05:09
Neds2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-24 05:09
Winamax (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -6.83%E -4.91%K -17.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-24 08:44
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -1.09%E -0.364%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.50%E -5.43%K -19.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-24 09:54
Fliff2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.50%E -5.43%K -19.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-24 09:54
SportsBet2.94I 34.01%NM 31.79%EV -3.07%E -1.04%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.21%EV -8.17%E -5.96%K -22.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-24 08:40
Betclic (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -8.84%E -6.50%K -24.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-24 09:49
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (1)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30%0.2%2026-02-24 09:54