Language:English
Thiago Agustin Tirante v Arthur Fils
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local)
Prediction 25.54%3.92fair odd
EV +2.15%
Edge +0.539%
Kelly +0.718%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%25.58%25.60%27.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.633.604.0029.41%27.55%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Fils (Visit)
Prediction 74.46%1.34fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -7.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.34%74.42%74.40%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.281.291.3180.00%77.97%77.52%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local): 25.54%; Arthur Fils (Visit): 74.46%. For Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.92. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +2.15%E +0.539%K +0.718%G +0.015% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -5.43%E -4.28%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-20 06:36 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +2.15%E +0.539%K +0.718%G +0.015% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -5.43%E -4.28%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-20 06:43 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +2.15%E +0.539%K +0.718%G +0.015% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.92%E -5.54%K -27.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-20 10:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV +0.878%E +0.222%K +0.298%G +0.003% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -5.43%E -4.28%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-20 06:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.86%EV +0.367%E +0.093%K +0.125%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.14%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-21 00:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.76%EV -0.654%E -0.168%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.24%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-20 23:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.76%EV -0.654%E -0.168%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.24%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-20 23:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -1.68%E -0.435%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.18%E -4.90%K -23.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-20 08:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -1.68%E -0.435%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.18%E -4.90%K -23.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-20 07:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -2.44%E -0.639%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -5.43%E -4.28%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-21 00:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.95%E -0.777%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.92%E -5.54%K -27.69%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-20 07:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.95%E -0.777%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.92%E -5.54%K -27.69%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-20 04:57 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -4.23%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -2.46%E -1.87%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-21 00:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.23%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-20 15:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.23%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-21 00:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.23%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-21 00:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.23%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-20 15:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.23%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.18%E -4.90%K -23.76%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-21 00:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -4.49%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-21 00:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.20%EV -5.25%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.80%EV -6.92%E -5.54%K -27.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-20 02:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -5.51%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-20 15:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.51%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-20 17:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.51%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-20 17:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.51%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-20 17:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.51%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-20 23:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.51%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.43%E -4.28%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-20 16:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.51%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.92%E -5.54%K -27.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-20 17:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -6.78%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-21 00:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV -7.55%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.88%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-20 22:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.06%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 00:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.06%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 00:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.06%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 00:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.06%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 00:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.06%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 00:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.06%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 19:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.06%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.43%E -4.28%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-20 02:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.06%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.92%E -5.54%K -27.69%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-20 15:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.06%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.92%E -5.54%K -27.69%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-20 15:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -2.46%E -1.87%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-20 16:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-20 15:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-20 17:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.69%E -3.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-21 00:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.92%E -5.54%K -27.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-20 17:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.92%E -5.54%K -27.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-20 17:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.89%E -3.45%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -13.17%E -3.87%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-20 15:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -13.17%E -3.87%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.20%E -2.46%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-20 15:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.17%E -3.87%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-21 00:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.17%E -3.87%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.94%E -3.06%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-21 00:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23% | 0.1% | 2026-08-21 00:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23% | 0.1% | 2026-08-21 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79% | 0.2% | 2026-08-21 00:20 |
| Novig◎ | 4.08I 24.51%NM 24.44% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.56% | 0.3% | 2026-08-21 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-08-21 00:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-08-21 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.07% | 1.9% | 2026-08-21 00:25 |