Language:English
Sebastian Baez v Grigor Dimitrov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sebastian Baez (Local)
Prediction 42.15%2.37fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%42.10%42.16%43.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.202.3146.51%44.94%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grigor Dimitrov (Visit)
Prediction 57.85%1.73fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -3.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.48%57.90%57.84%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.641.651.6964.52%60.87%60.61%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sebastian Baez (Local): 42.15%; Grigor Dimitrov (Visit): 57.85%. For Grigor Dimitrov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.69, with an expected value of -2.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -2.63%E -1.14%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -6.28%E -3.88%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -3.05%E -1.33%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -3.05%E -1.33%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -3.97%E -2.39%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-14 15:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.05%E -1.33%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-14 16:23 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.05%E -1.33%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.28%E -3.88%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-14 09:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -3.05%E -1.33%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -10.33%E -6.67%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-14 15:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -3.47%E -1.52%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.72%EV -6.86%E -4.26%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-14 16:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -3.90%E -1.71%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -2.24%E -1.32%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.90%E -1.71%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -4.74%E -2.10%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-12 16:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 11:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 04:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 16:23 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 15:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 15:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 16:23 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.13%E -3.13%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.13%E -3.13%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 15:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.13%E -3.13%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.71%E -3.50%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.71%E -3.50%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.28%E -3.88%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 15:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.28%E -3.88%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.28%E -3.88%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.86%E -4.26%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 15:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.44%E -4.65%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.18%E -5.85%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 15:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.16%E -2.29%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.18%E -5.85%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -2.24%E -1.32%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.39%E -2.03%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 16:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.39%E -2.03%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 16:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.39%E -2.03%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 05:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.13%E -3.13%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.13%E -3.13%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 15:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.28%E -3.88%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.86%E -4.26%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.86%E -4.26%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.86%E -4.26%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.44%E -4.65%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-14 15:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.44%E -4.65%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.44%E -4.65%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.44%E -4.65%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.27%E -3.30%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -9.18%E -5.85%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.11%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.41I 41.49%NM 41.22% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.78% | 0.7% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97% | 1.5% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |