Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Luciano Darderi v Rinky Hijikata

Início: 2026-08-15 20:30 UTC

Final: Luciano Darderi 0–2 Rinky Hijikata

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

61 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Luciano Darderi (Local)

Previsão 60.30%1.66odd justa
EV -2.31%
Vantagem -1.43%
Kelly -3.72%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.62

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
58.14%60.30%60.25%61.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.521.571.571.6265.79%63.56%63.69%61.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Rinky Hijikata (Visitante)

Previsão 39.70%2.52odd justa
EV -1.15%
Vantagem -0.464%
Kelly -0.775%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.49

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.37%39.70%39.75%41.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.252.372.382.4944.44%42.14%42.02%40.16%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Luciano Darderi (Local): 60.30%; Rinky Hijikata (Visitante): 39.70%. Para Rinky Hijikata (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.52. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.49, com valor esperado de -1.15%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (61 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.31%E -1.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.68%E -4.75%K -8.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 07:05
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.91%E -1.81%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.74%E -1.12%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-15 18:05
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.91%E -1.81%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.71%E -2.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 05:24
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -3.52%E -2.20%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -1.55%E -0.626%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-15 19:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -3.52%E -2.20%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -1.55%E -0.626%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-15 20:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -3.52%E -2.20%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -1.55%E -0.626%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-15 20:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -3.52%E -2.20%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.74%E -1.12%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 20:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.52%E -2.20%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 20:19
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.52%E -2.20%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.70%E -3.78%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 20:15
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.52%E -2.20%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -10.68%E -4.75%K -8.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 20:14
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.12%E -2.59%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.74%E -1.12%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-15 20:24
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.12%E -2.59%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 18:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.12%E -2.59%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 09:19
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.12%E -2.59%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 20:29
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.12%E -2.59%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 20:24
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.12%E -2.59%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.70%E -3.78%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 07:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.72%E -2.99%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 07:25
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.72%E -2.99%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 20:24
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.72%E -2.99%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 20:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.72%E -2.99%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 09:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.72%E -2.99%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 09:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.72%E -2.99%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:25
GTbets🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.90%EV -4.72%E -2.99%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -6.32%E -2.68%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 11:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -5.12%E -2.14%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 19:54
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:19
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 18:00
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:19
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 17:50
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:20
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:20
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:19
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:19
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:20
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.52%E -2.32%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 17:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.71%E -2.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 18:09
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.71%E -2.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 18:09
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.71%E -2.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 20:20
Betsson🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.71%E -2.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 20:19
NordicBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.71%E -2.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 20:19
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.68%E -4.75%K -8.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 06:40
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.32%E -3.39%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.68%E -4.75%K -8.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 06:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.93%E -3.80%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 13:49
BetMGM🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.93%E -3.80%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 18:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -5.93%E -3.80%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -7.90%E -3.41%K -5.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 20:29
DraftKings🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.63%EV -6.53%E -4.21%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.37%EV -1.15%E -0.464%K -0.775%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 20:25
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.53%E -4.21%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.73%E -1.97%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 17:58
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.53%E -4.21%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -5.92%E -2.50%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 18:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.53%E -4.21%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -5.92%E -2.50%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 18:10
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.36%EV -6.53%E -4.21%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.64%EV -6.32%E -2.68%K -4.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 16:15
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.53%E -4.21%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.71%E -2.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 20:20
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.74%E -5.06%K -14.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.70%E -3.78%K -6.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 18:34
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.74%E -5.06%K -14.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.70%E -3.78%K -6.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 18:31
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.34%E -5.49%K -16.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.71%E -2.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-14 19:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -8.34%E -5.49%K -16.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -8.70%E -3.78%K -6.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 20:28
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-08-15 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%0.9%2026-08-15 20:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%0.9%2026-08-15 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%0.9%2026-08-15 20:25
Novig◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%1.0%2026-08-15 20:25
ProphetX◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-08-15 20:20
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 61.65%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.35%2.7%2026-08-15 20:25