Idioma:Español
Learner Tien v Sebastian Baez
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Learner Tien (Local)
Predicción 73.21%1.37momio equitativo
EV -2.63%
Ventaja -1.98%
Kelly -7.98%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.33
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.27%73.27%73.22%76.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.251.301.301.3380.00%77.13%76.92%75.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Sebastian Baez (Visitante)
Predicción 26.79%3.73momio equitativo
EV +7.71%
Ventaja +1.92%
Kelly +2.55%
Crecimiento +0.197%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.02
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.72%26.73%26.78%28.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.503.504.0230.77%28.55%28.57%24.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Learner Tien (Local): 73.21%; Sebastian Baez (Visitante): 26.79%. Para Sebastian Baez (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.73. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.02, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +7.71%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.28%EV -8.49%E -6.79%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 23.72%EV +7.71%E +1.92%K +2.55%G +0.197% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 20:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.21%EV -4.10%E -3.13%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.79%EV +1.01%E +0.267%K +0.364%G +0.004% | 2.9% | 2026-08-16 20:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -4.10%E -3.13%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV +0.472%E +0.126%K +0.171%G +0.001% | 3.0% | 2026-08-16 20:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +0.472%E +0.126%K +0.171%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 20:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +0.472%E +0.126%K +0.171%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 20:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +0.472%E +0.126%K +0.171%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 20:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.86%EV -3.37%E -2.55%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 26.14%EV -0.064%E -0.017%K -0.024%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-16 20:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -4.10%E -3.13%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -2.21%E -0.605%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-16 09:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -2.21%E -0.605%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 20:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.37%EV -4.10%E -3.13%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.63%EV -3.28%E -0.908%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-16 09:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.37%EV -4.10%E -3.13%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.63%EV -3.28%E -0.908%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-16 09:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.10%E -3.13%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.55%E -0.985%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.55%E -0.985%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 20:02 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.51%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.49%EV -4.08%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.51%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.49%EV -4.08%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 20:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.89%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 09:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.89%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 09:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.89%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 19:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.24%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.76%EV -5.42%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 20:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.10%E -3.13%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 08:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 09:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 10:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 20:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 20:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 20:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 08:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.29%E -4.92%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 20:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.29%E -4.92%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 20:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.29%E -4.92%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 20:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.59%EV -4.10%E -3.13%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.41%EV -7.03%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 09:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.57%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 20:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.57%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.40%EV -8.49%E -6.79%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.57%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-16 20:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 09:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 10:26 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 19:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.29%E -4.92%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -10.25%E -3.06%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 20:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -10.25%E -3.06%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 20:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.63%E -1.98%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 17:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.63%E -1.98%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 17:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.63%E -1.98%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 17:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.63%E -1.98%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 17:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.83%E -3.72%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 17:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -12.92%E -3.98%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 20:18 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.56%E -4.31%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -12.92%E -3.98%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 19:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.22%EV -8.49%E -6.79%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -12.92%E -3.98%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-16 19:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.22%EV -8.49%E -6.79%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -12.92%E -3.98%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-16 19:59 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 20:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.70% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 24.30% | 1.6% | 2026-08-16 20:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.98% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 24.02% | 2.0% | 2026-08-16 20:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39% | 2.5% | 2026-08-16 20:10 |