Language:English
Joao Fonseca v Botic van de Zandschulp
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Joao Fonseca (Local)
Prediction 69.45%1.44fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -6.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.67%69.37%69.51%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.371.4076.92%72.79%72.99%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botic van de Zandschulp (Visit)
Prediction 30.55%3.27fair odd
EV +0.801%
Edge +0.243%
Kelly +0.348%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%30.63%30.49%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.003.3035.71%33.02%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joao Fonseca (Local): 69.45%; Botic van de Zandschulp (Visit): 30.55%. For Botic van de Zandschulp (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.801%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +0.801%E +0.243%K +0.348%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 15:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -0.726%E -0.223%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-16 16:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.726%E -0.223%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%EV -6.93%E -5.17%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%EV -1.64%E -0.510%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.78%EV -3.46%E -2.49%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 30.22%EV -1.95%E -0.607%K -0.881%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 15:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.25%E -0.704%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 16:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.25%E -0.704%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 16:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.25%E -0.704%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 15:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -2.56%E -0.802%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.60%EV -4.15%E -3.01%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.40%EV -3.48%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 15:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.60%EV -4.15%E -3.01%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.40%EV -3.48%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 15:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -3.78%E -1.20%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-16 15:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -3.78%E -1.20%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 15:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -3.78%E -1.20%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 16:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.71%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.29%EV -4.39%E -1.40%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 08:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.18%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 29.82%EV -4.39%E -1.40%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 15:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.31%E -1.71%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 15:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.31%E -1.71%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 15:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.31%E -1.71%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 16:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.31%E -1.71%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 15:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -8.32%E -6.30%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.31%E -1.71%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 15:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.25%EV -9.71%E -7.47%K -32.37%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.75%EV -6.22%E -2.03%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-16 16:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -6.84%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.84%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -4.15%E -3.01%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -7.14%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.36%E -2.79%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -8.36%E -2.79%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.36%E -2.79%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 08:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.36%E -2.79%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 15:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.36%E -2.79%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.36%E -2.79%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 15:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.36%E -2.79%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 15:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.36%E -2.79%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 15:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.36%E -2.79%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-16 15:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.36%E -2.79%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-16 15:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:38 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 12:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -9.89%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 16:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.42%E -3.94%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 16:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.42%E -3.94%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 08:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.42%E -3.94%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 08:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.42%E -3.94%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 08:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.42%E -3.94%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 08:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.15%E -3.01%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.42%E -3.94%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 15:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.15%E -3.01%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.42%E -3.94%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 15:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -11.42%E -3.94%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 16:22 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -11.42%E -3.94%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -4.15%E -3.01%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -12.03%E -4.18%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 12:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -14.47%E -5.17%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 16:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.23% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77% | 0.3% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.23% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77% | 0.3% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.23% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77% | 0.3% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 0.3% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94% | 1.2% | 2026-08-16 16:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.92% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 29.08% | 1.4% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |