Language:English
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Zizou Bergs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prediction 53.76%1.86fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.889%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.78%53.66%55.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.771.781.8359.88%56.62%56.18%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Zizou Bergs (Visit)
Prediction 46.24%2.16fair odd
EV +1.27%
Edge +0.582%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 2.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.07%46.22%46.34%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1951.28%48.91%48.78%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 53.76%; Zizou Bergs (Visit): 46.24%. For Zizou Bergs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.19, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.27%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%EV -5.93%E -3.39%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.42%EV +1.27%E +0.582%K +1.07%G +0.014% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV +0.812%E +0.372%K +0.688%G +0.006% | 4.0% | 2026-08-16 20:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV +0.812%E +0.372%K +0.688%G +0.006% | 4.0% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -8.08%E -4.72%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV +0.349%E +0.161%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 20:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.46%E -3.72%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -0.576%E -0.268%K -0.500%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.85%E -2.74%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 20:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.00%E -4.05%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 20:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.00%E -4.05%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 20:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.00%E -4.05%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 19:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 20:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.08%E -4.72%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 20:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.23%E -6.12%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 17:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.23%E -6.12%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 17:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -4.85%E -2.74%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -3.81%E -1.83%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 20:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -4.74%E -2.30%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -4.74%E -2.30%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 17:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 08:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 20:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.85%E -2.74%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.39%E -3.06%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 17:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.93%E -3.39%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 20:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.93%E -3.39%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.93%E -3.39%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 20:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.46%E -3.72%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.46%E -3.72%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 20:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.46%E -3.72%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 20:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 20:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 20:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.61%E -5.07%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-16 20:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.61%E -5.07%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-16 20:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%EV -4.85%E -2.74%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%EV -5.66%E -2.78%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.59%E -3.26%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 06:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.59%E -3.26%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.63%E -0.889%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 10:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.63%E -0.889%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 19:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 23:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:43 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 23:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 23:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 06:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 23:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 13:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.00%E -4.05%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-16 20:43 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.00%E -4.05%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-16 20:43 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 06:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%EV -4.85%E -2.74%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%EV -9.36%E -4.78%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 08:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.82%E -5.04%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 10:26 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 0.5% | 2026-08-16 20:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69% | 2.3% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.34% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.66% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |