Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniel Merida Aguilar v Zizou Bergs

Início: 2026-08-16 20:48 UTC

Final: Daniel Merida Aguilar 2–0 Zizou Bergs

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

63 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

54%

46%

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)

Previsão 53.76%1.86odd justa

EV -1.63%

Vantagem -0.889%

Kelly -1.96%

Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.83

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas

52.00%53.78%53.66%55.93%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribuição das odds

1.671.771.781.8359.88%56.62%56.18%54.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Zizou Bergs (Visitante)

Previsão 46.24%2.16odd justa

EV +1.27%

Vantagem +0.582%

Kelly +1.07%

Crescimento +0.014%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.19

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas

44.07%46.22%46.34%48.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribuição das odds

1.952.042.052.1951.28%48.91%48.78%45.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 53.76%; Zizou Bergs (Visitante): 46.24%. Para Zizou Bergs (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.16. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.19, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.27%.

Odds das casas de apostas (63 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostas	Local	Visitante ▼	Margem	Atualização
Pinnacle🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%EV -5.93%E -3.39%K -7.90%G +0.000%	2.19I 45.66%NM 44.42%EV +1.27%E +0.582%K +1.07%G +0.014%	2.8%	2026-08-16 20:45
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV +0.812%E +0.372%K +0.688%G +0.006%	4.0%	2026-08-16 20:44
LowVig.ag🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV +0.812%E +0.372%K +0.688%G +0.006%	4.0%	2026-08-16 20:45
1xBet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -8.08%E -4.72%K -11.38%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV +0.349%E +0.161%K +0.299%G +0.001%	4.6%	2026-08-16 20:44
BetAnything🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.46%E -3.72%K -8.74%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -0.576%E -0.268%K -0.500%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-16 20:45
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-16 20:45
Coolbet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-16 20:45
Bovada🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.85%E -2.74%K -6.30%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-16 20:34
Betway🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.00%E -4.05%K -9.59%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-16 20:34
betfred_uk🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.00%E -4.05%K -9.59%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-16 20:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.00%E -4.05%K -9.59%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-16 19:10
PlayUp🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-16 20:40
BetMGM🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.08%E -4.72%K -11.38%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-16 20:34
Paddy Power🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.23%E -6.12%K -15.26%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-16 17:15
Sky Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.23%E -6.12%K -15.26%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.89%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-16 17:19
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -4.85%E -2.74%K -6.30%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -3.81%E -1.83%K -3.53%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-08-16 20:40
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -4.74%E -2.30%K -4.47%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-16 20:45
FanDuel🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -4.74%E -2.30%K -4.47%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-16 17:19
LeoVegas🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-16 20:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-16 08:20
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-16 20:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.85%E -2.74%K -6.30%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-16 20:45
SportsBet🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.39%E -3.06%K -7.09%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-16 17:19
Betr (AU)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.93%E -3.39%K -7.90%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-16 20:39
Betsson🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.93%E -3.39%K -7.90%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-16 20:45
NordicBet🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.93%E -3.39%K -7.90%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-16 20:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.46%E -3.72%K -8.74%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-16 20:45
Fanatics🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.46%E -3.72%K -8.74%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-16 20:40
BetUS🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.46%E -3.72%K -8.74%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-16 20:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-08-16 20:35
Neds🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-08-16 20:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.61%E -5.07%K -12.31%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-16 20:34
Coral🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.61%E -5.07%K -12.31%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-16 20:34
Marathon Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%EV -4.85%E -2.74%K -6.30%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%EV -5.66%E -2.78%K -5.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-16 20:45
GTbets🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.59%E -3.26%K -6.46%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-15 06:44
DraftKings🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.59%E -3.26%K -6.46%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-08-16 20:45
BoyleSports🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.63%E -0.889%K -1.96%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-08-16 10:04
ReBet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.63%E -0.889%K -1.96%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-08-16 19:49
Unibet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:44
BetRivers🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:44
TABtouch🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:44
Grosvenor🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:45
Casumo🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:45
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:45
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:45
888sport🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 23:25
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:44
Virgin Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:44
betPARX🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:43
888sport (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 23:20
ATG (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:44
Bally Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:45
Svenska Spel🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 23:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 06:55
William Hill🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-15 23:24
TAB🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-16 13:14
Bet Victor🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.00%E -4.05%K -9.59%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-16 20:43
betano_uk🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.00%E -4.05%K -9.59%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-16 20:43
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.54%E -4.38%K -10.47%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-08-15 06:45
PMU (FR)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%EV -4.85%E -2.74%K -6.30%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%EV -9.36%E -4.78%K -9.75%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-16 08:24
Caesars🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.24%E -1.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.82%E -5.04%K -10.34%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-15 10:26

Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostas	Local	Visitante	Margem ▲	Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%	0.2%	2026-08-16 20:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%	0.2%	2026-08-16 20:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%	0.2%	2026-08-16 20:45
ProphetX◎	1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%	2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%	0.4%	2026-08-16 20:45
Matchbook◎	1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%	0.5%	2026-08-16 20:35
Smarkets◎	1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%	2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%	2.3%	2026-08-16 20:45
Novig◎	1.79I 55.87%NM 54.34%	2.13I 46.95%NM 45.66%	2.8%	2026-08-16 20:45