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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Arthur Rinderknech v Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Inicio: 2026-08-16 16:47 UTC

Final: Arthur Rinderknech 1–2 Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arthur Rinderknech (Local)

Predicción 60.87%1.64momio equitativo
EV -1.39%
Ventaja -0.858%
Kelly -2.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.14%61.05%60.81%63.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.561.561.6266.67%64.24%64.10%61.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Visitante)

Predicción 39.13%2.56momio equitativo
EV +2.91%
Ventaja +1.11%
Kelly +1.79%
Crecimiento +0.052%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.78%38.95%39.19%41.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.402.402.6344.44%41.62%41.67%38.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Arthur Rinderknech (Local): 60.87%; Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Visitante): 39.13%. Para Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.56. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.63, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.91%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV +2.91%E +1.11%K +1.79%G +0.052%3.4%2026-08-16 16:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV +2.91%E +1.11%K +1.79%G +0.052%3.4%2026-08-16 16:44
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -0.221%E -0.087%K -0.142%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-16 16:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%EV -3.82%E -2.42%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -2.18%E -0.871%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-16 16:40
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.18%E -0.871%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-16 16:25
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.18%E -0.871%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-16 16:29
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.94%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.06%EV -2.57%E -1.03%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 16:44
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -2.61%E -1.63%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -3.35%E -1.36%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-16 16:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.22%E -2.02%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.13%E -1.69%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-16 01:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.13%E -1.69%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.13%E -1.69%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 16:44
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -6.26%E -4.06%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.13%E -1.69%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 16:40
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.13%E -1.69%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 16:10
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -3.82%E -2.42%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -5.31%E -2.19%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 01:34
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.22%E -2.02%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 16:43
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.82%E -2.42%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 16:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 01:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 01:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 01:34
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:34
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 16:40
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:34
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:34
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:35
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 16:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 16:44
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:35
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 01:35
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.65%E -3.65%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:20
ReBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.65%E -3.65%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 16:44
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.65%E -3.65%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 16:44
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.65%E -3.65%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 16:44
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 16:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 16:10
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.09%E -2.54%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 10:26
GTbets🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -6.48%E -2.71%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 12:09
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.87%E -2.89%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 18:49
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.87%E -2.89%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:14
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.87%E -2.89%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.87%E -2.89%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 18:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.87%E -2.89%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 18:44
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.87%E -2.89%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 18:50
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.87%E -2.89%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 16:15
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.87%E -2.89%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 16:24
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.51%EV -6.26%E -4.06%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.49%EV -7.66%E -3.24%K -5.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 01:35
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -3.82%E -2.42%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -8.05%E -3.42%K -5.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 16:00
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.65%E -3.65%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.05%E -3.42%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 16:09
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.65%E -3.65%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.05%E -3.42%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 16:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.65%E -3.65%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.05%E -3.42%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 16:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -6.26%E -4.06%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.05%E -3.42%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 01:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.48%E -4.92%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -8.05%E -3.42%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 22:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -8.69%E -5.80%K -17.39%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.05%E -3.42%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 16:43
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -1.39%E -0.858%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -11.96%E -5.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 01:35
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -11.96%E -5.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 01:35
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -11.96%E -5.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 01:34
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -6.87%E -4.49%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -11.96%E -5.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 16:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74%0.1%2026-08-16 16:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74%0.1%2026-08-16 16:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74%0.1%2026-08-16 16:45
Matchbook◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43%0.2%2026-08-16 16:45
ProphetX◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-08-16 16:45
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 62.53%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.47%1.9%2026-08-16 16:45
Novig◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%2.0%2026-08-16 16:45