Language:English
Arthur Fils v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arthur Fils (Local)
Prediction 61.07%1.64fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.28%61.18%61.05%62.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.561.561.6168.03%64.30%64.10%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 38.93%2.57fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.443%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.03%38.82%38.95%40.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.432.5443.48%41.05%41.15%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Fils (Local): 61.07%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 38.93%. For Alex de Minaur (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.54, with an expected value of -1.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.73%EV -1.67%E -1.04%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.27%EV -3.07%E -1.23%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-08-19 19:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88%EV -2.28%E -1.43%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12%EV -3.07%E -1.23%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-18 12:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -2.28%E -1.43%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -3.85%E -1.56%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-19 19:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -2.89%E -1.82%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -3.07%E -1.23%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-19 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -2.89%E -1.82%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -3.07%E -1.23%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-19 19:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.65%EV -3.50%E -2.22%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.35%EV -1.13%E -0.443%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-19 15:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%EV -3.50%E -2.22%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -2.68%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-19 11:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -3.50%E -2.22%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -8.52%E -3.63%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 18:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -3.50%E -2.22%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -10.47%E -4.55%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-19 18:58 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.12%E -2.62%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.68%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-19 08:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.12%E -2.62%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-19 08:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.12%E -2.62%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-19 18:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.12%E -2.62%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-19 18:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.12%E -2.62%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.35%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-19 10:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.12%E -2.62%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.35%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.12%E -2.62%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.35%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.12%E -2.62%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.35%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 12:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.12%E -2.62%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.35%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 12:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.12%E -2.62%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.35%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-19 13:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.68%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-19 18:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-19 17:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-19 08:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-19 08:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-19 11:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-19 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 12:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 08:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.73%E -3.03%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 13:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.34%E -3.44%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 19:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.34%E -3.44%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-19 18:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.34%E -3.44%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.52%E -3.63%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 17:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.34%E -3.44%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.52%E -3.63%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 17:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -5.95%E -3.86%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -1.90%E -0.756%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-19 18:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -5.95%E -3.86%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -2.29%E -0.914%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-19 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -5.95%E -3.86%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -3.85%E -1.56%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-19 19:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.95%E -3.86%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 08:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.56%E -4.29%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.68%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-19 18:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -6.56%E -4.29%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.25%EV -3.85%E -1.56%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 18:53 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.56%E -4.29%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-18 17:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.56%E -4.29%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-18 17:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.56%E -4.29%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-18 17:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.56%E -4.29%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-18 12:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.56%E -4.29%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.35%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-19 08:39 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.56%E -4.29%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.35%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-19 08:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.56%E -4.29%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.35%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-19 12:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.68%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-19 18:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.68%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-19 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.63%E -1.89%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-19 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -10.22%E -6.95%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -2.68%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-18 12:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-19 19:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-19 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-08-19 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-08-19 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-08-19 19:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.10% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.90% | 1.5% | 2026-08-19 19:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.31% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.69% | 2.6% | 2026-08-19 19:05 |