Language:English
Arthur Fery v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arthur Fery (Local)
Prediction 21.35%4.68fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.301%
Kelly +0.382%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.03%21.46%21.33%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.424.504.7526.32%22.63%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 78.65%1.27fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -6.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.25%78.54%78.67%79.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.201.2585.47%82.95%83.33%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Fery (Local): 21.35%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 78.65%. For Arthur Fery (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.68. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.43%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV +1.43%E +0.301%K +0.382%G +0.005% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-17 17:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +1.43%E +0.301%K +0.382%G +0.005% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.39%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-17 17:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.364%E +0.077%K +0.098%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.41%E -5.39%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.67I 21.41%NM 20.85%EV -0.277%E -0.059%K -0.075%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.15%EV -3.27%E -2.65%K -14.20%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-17 15:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV -0.704%E -0.151%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 16:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -1.77%E -0.385%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.84%E -4.00%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-17 17:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.77%E -0.385%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -1.77%E -0.385%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-17 16:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.57I 21.88%NM 20.93%EV -2.41%E -0.528%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.07%EV -4.84%E -4.00%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-17 17:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.91%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-17 15:18 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.91%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-17 17:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.91%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-17 15:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.91%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-17 15:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -3.91%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.84%E -4.00%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-17 17:38 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.91%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-17 17:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -3.91%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.97%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-17 16:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -3.91%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.97%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-17 16:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -4.97%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -4.84%E -4.00%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 16:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -4.97%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -4.84%E -4.00%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 17:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -4.97%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -4.84%E -4.00%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 16:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.04%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-17 17:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.04%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-17 17:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -6.04%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-17 14:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -7.54%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 04:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.54%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-17 15:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -8.18%E -1.90%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.27%E -2.65%K -14.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-17 16:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -8.18%E -1.90%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-17 15:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -8.18%E -1.90%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.84%E -4.00%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 17:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -8.18%E -1.90%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-16 21:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.25%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-17 06:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -9.25%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -4.84%E -4.00%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-17 06:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -9.25%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.41%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-17 17:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.31%E -2.46%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-17 14:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.31%E -2.46%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-17 14:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.31%E -2.46%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-17 14:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.31%E -2.46%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-17 14:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.31%E -2.46%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 10:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -11.38%E -2.74%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-17 17:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -12.45%E -3.04%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-17 06:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -14.58%E -3.65%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.48%E -2.00%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-17 16:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.58%E -3.65%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 06:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.58%E -3.65%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 06:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -14.58%E -3.65%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-17 15:23 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -14.58%E -3.65%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.62%E -4.69%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-17 15:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -18.85%E -4.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -1.69%E -1.35%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-17 06:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -18.85%E -4.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -1.69%E -1.35%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-17 06:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -18.85%E -4.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -2.48%E -2.00%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 16:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.93% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.07% | 0.4% | 2026-08-17 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-08-17 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-08-17 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-08-17 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-08-17 17:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-08-17 17:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45% | 2.0% | 2026-08-17 17:55 |