Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alexander Zverev v Tommy Paul

Início: 2026-08-19 18:00 UTC

Final: Alexander Zverev 1–2 Tommy Paul

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

62 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Previsão 69.88%1.43odd justa
EV -2.87%
Vantagem -2.06%
Kelly -7.35%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.39

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
67.76%69.86%69.84%71.43%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.301.361.361.3976.92%73.77%73.53%71.94%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tommy Paul (Visitante)

Previsão 30.12%3.32odd justa
EV +0.899%
Vantagem +0.268%
Kelly +0.383%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.57%30.14%30.16%32.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.133.103.3534.48%31.93%32.26%29.85%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Alexander Zverev (Local): 69.88%; Tommy Paul (Visitante): 30.12%. Para Tommy Paul (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.32. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.35, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.899%.

Odds das casas de apostas (62 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +0.899%E +0.268%K +0.383%G +0.003%4.5%2026-08-19 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.70%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.30%EV +0.297%E +0.089%K +0.127%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-19 17:35
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 70.30%EV -2.87%E -2.06%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.70%EV -0.908%E -0.276%K -0.396%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-19 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -2.11%E -0.650%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-19 16:54
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -2.11%E -0.650%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-19 17:10
BetAnything🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -2.11%E -0.650%K -0.939%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-19 17:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.11%E -0.650%K -0.939%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-19 16:55
DraftKings🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.59%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.41%EV -2.41%E -0.745%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-19 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -3.02%E -0.937%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-19 17:40
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.08%EV -8.46%E -6.46%K -27.28%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.92%EV -3.02%E -0.937%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-19 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-19 16:54
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-19 13:45
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-19 17:40
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 09:20
BetMGM🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 05:29
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.15%E -7.04%K -30.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 16:54
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.15%E -7.04%K -30.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 16:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.15%E -7.04%K -30.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.74%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.26%EV -4.22%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-19 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.74%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.26%EV -4.22%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-19 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV -4.22%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-19 17:15
ReBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -4.82%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-19 16:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-19 16:53
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 16:55
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 17:05
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:10
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:10
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 16:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:55
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 07:54
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 07:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 07:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 07:54
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 15:40
LeoVegas🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-19 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 05:29
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 05:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -8.14%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 17:05
Fanatics🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-19 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 13:45
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 17:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 05:29
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 05:27
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 17:10
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-19 16:53
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-19 16:55
Caesars🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-18 12:19
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-19 17:55
Matchbook◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-19 17:55
ProphetX◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-08-19 17:50
Novig◎1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27%2.5%2026-08-19 17:55
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%2.8%2026-08-19 17:55