Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Alexander Zverev v Tommy Paul

Coup d’envoi : 2026-08-19 18:00 UTC

Score final : Alexander Zverev 1–2 Tommy Paul

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

62 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Prévision 69.88%1.43cote équitable
EV -2.87%
Avantage -2.06%
Kelly -7.35%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.39

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
67.76%69.86%69.84%71.43%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.301.361.361.3976.92%73.77%73.53%71.94%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Tommy Paul (Visiteur)

Prévision 30.12%3.32cote équitable
EV +0.899%
Avantage +0.268%
Kelly +0.383%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 3.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.57%30.14%30.16%32.24%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.903.133.103.3534.48%31.93%32.26%29.85%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Alexander Zverev (Local) : 69.88% ; Tommy Paul (Visiteur) : 30.12%. Pour Tommy Paul (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.32. 2 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.35, soit une espérance positive de +0.899%.

Cotes des opérateurs (62 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +0.899%E +0.268%K +0.383%G +0.003%4.5%2026-08-19 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.70%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.30%EV +0.297%E +0.089%K +0.127%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-19 17:35
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 70.30%EV -2.87%E -2.06%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.70%EV -0.908%E -0.276%K -0.396%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-19 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -2.11%E -0.650%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-19 16:54
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -2.11%E -0.650%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-19 17:10
BetAnything🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -2.11%E -0.650%K -0.939%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-19 17:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.11%E -0.650%K -0.939%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-19 16:55
DraftKings🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.59%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.41%EV -2.41%E -0.745%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-19 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -3.02%E -0.937%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-19 17:40
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.08%EV -8.46%E -6.46%K -27.28%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.92%EV -3.02%E -0.937%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-19 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-19 16:54
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-19 13:45
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-19 17:40
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 09:20
BetMGM🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 05:29
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.15%E -7.04%K -30.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 16:54
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.15%E -7.04%K -30.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 16:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.15%E -7.04%K -30.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.74%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.26%EV -4.22%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-19 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.74%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.26%EV -4.22%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-19 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV -4.22%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-19 17:15
ReBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -4.82%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-19 16:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-19 16:53
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 16:55
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 17:05
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:10
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:10
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 16:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:05
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 17:55
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 07:54
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 07:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 07:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 07:54
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 15:40
LeoVegas🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-19 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 05:29
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 05:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -8.14%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 17:05
Fanatics🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-19 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 13:45
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 17:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 05:29
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 05:27
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 17:10
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-19 16:53
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-19 16:55
Caesars🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.56%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-18 12:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-19 17:55
Matchbook◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-19 17:55
ProphetX◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-08-19 17:50
Novig◎1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27%2.5%2026-08-19 17:55
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%2.8%2026-08-19 17:55