Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alexander Zverev v Tommy Paul

2026-08-19 15:00 UTC — ATP Cincinnati Open

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (16 en el análisis )

66%

34%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Predicción 66.25%1.51momio equitativo

EV -3.93%

Ventaja -2.71%

Kelly -8.74%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

64.89%66.66%65.99%69.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.351.391.391.4574.07%71.85%71.94%68.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tommy Paul (Visitante)

Predicción 33.75%2.96momio equitativo

EV +4.61%

Ventaja +1.49%

Kelly +2.20%

Crecimiento +0.101%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

30.49%33.34%34.01%35.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.552.912.903.1039.22%34.38%34.54%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Alexander Zverev (Local): 66.25%; Tommy Paul (Visitante): 33.75%. Para Tommy Paul (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.96. 21 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.10, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.61%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
Virgin Bet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -9.23%E -6.74%K -24.95%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.3%	2026-08-18 07:10
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -9.23%E -6.74%K -24.95%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.3%	2026-08-18 07:10
Unibet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:09
BetRivers🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:09
TABtouch🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:09
Casumo🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:10
Grosvenor🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:10
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:10
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:10
betPARX🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:10
Svenska Spel🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:10
ATG (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:09
Bally Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:10
888sport🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:20
William Hill🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +4.61%E +1.49%K +2.20%G +0.101%	5.8%	2026-08-18 07:20
DraftKings🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -7.91%E -5.69%K -20.28%G +0.000%	3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV +2.25%E +0.743%K +1.11%G +0.025%	4.9%	2026-08-18 07:20
Coolbet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -4.59%E -3.19%K -10.44%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%EV +1.24%E +0.413%K +0.620%G +0.008%	2.8%	2026-08-18 07:19
PMU (FR)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -10.56%E -7.82%K -30.16%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV +1.24%E +0.413%K +0.620%G +0.008%	7.4%	2026-08-18 07:10
1xBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 67.19%EV -3.93%E -2.71%K -8.74%G +0.000%	2.97I 33.67%NM 32.81%EV +0.227%E +0.076%K +0.115%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-08-18 07:14
GTbets🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.82%EV -3.93%E -2.71%K -8.74%G +0.000%	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%EV -1.46%E -0.500%K -0.761%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-18 07:19
PlayUp🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.11%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.14%E -0.736%K -1.12%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-18 07:19
Marathon Bet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.21%EV -6.58%E -4.67%K -16.05%G +0.000%	2.89I 34.60%NM 32.79%EV -2.47%E -0.856%K -1.31%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-18 07:10
FanDuel🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.26%E -3.68%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.81%E -0.976%K -1.49%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-18 06:25
betfred_uk🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.11%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.81%E -0.976%K -1.49%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-18 07:09
Betr (AU)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.58%E -4.67%K -16.05%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -3.82%E -1.34%K -2.07%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-18 07:20
NordicBet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.59%E -3.19%K -10.44%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-18 06:24
Betsson🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.59%E -3.19%K -10.44%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-18 06:30
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.26%E -3.68%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-18 06:24
SportsBet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.11%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-18 06:25
LeoVegas🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -8.57%E -6.21%K -22.55%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-18 07:20
Betway🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.59%E -3.19%K -10.44%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-18 06:39
Fanatics🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.26%E -3.68%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-18 06:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.92%E -4.17%K -14.09%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-18 06:24
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.92%E -4.17%K -14.09%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-18 06:25
theScore Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.92%E -4.17%K -14.09%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-18 06:25
betano_uk🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.11%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-18 07:13
Bet Victor🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.11%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-18 07:14
Sky Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.11%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-18 06:10
Paddy Power🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.11%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-18 06:09
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.11%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.88%E -3.29%K -5.23%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-08-18 07:44
ReBet🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 65.34%EV -7.91%E -5.69%K -20.28%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 34.66%EV -11.58%E -4.42%K -7.15%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-08-18 06:25
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 65.16%EV -7.91%E -5.69%K -20.28%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -12.26%E -4.72%K -7.66%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-08-18 06:28
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 64.89%EV -8.57%E -6.21%K -22.55%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -13.95%E -5.47%K -9.00%G +0.000%	11.7%	2026-08-18 06:24
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 65.05%EV -9.23%E -6.74%K -24.95%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 34.95%EV -13.95%E -5.47%K -9.00%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-08-18 06:24

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Novig◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%	6.9%	2026-08-18 07:20
Smarkets◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 64.96%	2.54I 39.37%NM 35.04%	12.4%	2026-08-18 06:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.31I 76.34%NM 65.07%	2.44I 40.98%NM 34.93%	17.3%	2026-08-18 07:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.31I 76.34%NM 65.07%	2.44I 40.98%NM 34.93%	17.3%	2026-08-18 07:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.31I 76.34%NM 64.31%	2.36I 42.37%NM 35.69%	18.7%	2026-08-18 07:55
Matchbook◎	1.31I 76.34%NM 64.31%	2.36I 42.37%NM 35.69%	18.7%	2026-08-18 07:00

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