Language:English
Adam Walton v Nicolas Mejia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Adam Walton (Local)
Prediction 63.41%1.58fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -5.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.46%63.41%66.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.481.501.5370.92%67.46%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nicolas Mejia (Visit)
Prediction 36.59%2.73fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.873%
Kelly +1.36%
Growth +0.033%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.81%36.54%36.59%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.612.602.8040.82%38.30%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adam Walton (Local): 63.41%; Nicolas Mejia (Visit): 36.59%. For Nicolas Mejia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.45%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.2% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.2% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.2% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -3.61%E -2.38%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV -1.21%E -0.449%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -4.25%E -2.81%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -1.21%E -0.449%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-14 13:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -4.25%E -2.81%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -1.21%E -0.449%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-14 13:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.21%E -0.449%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-14 14:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -10.59%E -7.51%K -25.83%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -1.21%E -0.449%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.57%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.43%EV -2.31%E -0.866%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-14 19:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.18%EV -5.52%E -3.70%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.82%EV -2.31%E -0.866%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 13:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55%EV -3.61%E -2.38%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -3.04%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-14 19:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.04%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-14 14:02 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.04%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-14 14:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -3.04%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -3.41%E -1.29%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-14 07:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.77%E -1.44%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-14 18:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -3.77%E -1.44%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 07:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.14%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.14%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 14:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 20:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 14:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.61%EV -6.78%E -4.61%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.39%EV -5.97%E -2.32%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 07:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.61%E -2.38%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.25%E -2.81%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 18:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.25%E -2.81%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 18:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-14 14:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 20:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -6.78%E -4.61%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -10.36%E -4.23%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -6.78%E -4.61%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -10.36%E -4.23%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 20:23 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43% | 0.2% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30% | 1.3% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.53% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.47% | 1.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |