Idioma:Español
Adam Walton v Nicolas Mejia
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Adam Walton (Local)
Predicción 63.41%1.58momio equitativo
EV -2.98%
Ventaja -1.95%
Kelly -5.62%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.03%63.46%63.41%66.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.411.481.501.5370.92%67.46%66.67%65.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Nicolas Mejia (Visitante)
Predicción 36.59%2.73momio equitativo
EV +2.45%
Ventaja +0.873%
Kelly +1.36%
Crecimiento +0.033%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.81%36.54%36.59%37.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.612.602.8040.82%38.30%38.46%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Adam Walton (Local): 63.41%; Nicolas Mejia (Visitante): 36.59%. Para Nicolas Mejia (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.73. 11 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.45%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.2% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.2% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.2% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -9.32%E -6.52%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +2.45%E +0.873%K +1.36%G +0.033% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -3.61%E -2.38%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV -1.21%E -0.449%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -4.25%E -2.81%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -1.21%E -0.449%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-14 13:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -4.25%E -2.81%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -1.21%E -0.449%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-14 13:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.21%E -0.449%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-14 14:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -10.59%E -7.51%K -25.83%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -1.21%E -0.449%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.57%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.43%EV -2.31%E -0.866%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-14 19:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.18%EV -5.52%E -3.70%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.82%EV -2.31%E -0.866%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 13:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55%EV -3.61%E -2.38%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -3.04%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-14 19:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.04%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-14 14:02 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.04%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-14 14:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -3.04%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -3.41%E -1.29%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-14 07:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.77%E -1.44%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-14 18:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -3.77%E -1.44%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 07:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.14%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.14%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 14:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 20:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 14:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.61%EV -6.78%E -4.61%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.39%EV -5.97%E -2.32%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 07:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.61%E -2.38%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.25%E -2.81%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 18:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.25%E -2.81%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 18:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-14 14:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 20:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-14 20:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -6.78%E -4.61%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -10.36%E -4.23%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -6.78%E -4.61%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -10.36%E -4.23%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 20:23 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43% | 0.2% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30% | 1.3% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.53% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.47% | 1.6% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |