Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Zverev v Juncheng Shang

2026-10-03 03:00 UTC — ATP China Open

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Prediction 87.37%1.14fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -2.73%
Kelly -27.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.55%87.37%87.03%89.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.091.081.1195.24%92.11%92.59%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Juncheng Shang (Visit)

Prediction 12.63%7.91fair odd
EV +19.15%
Edge +2.03%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.435%

assuming max odds 9.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.19%12.63%12.97%15.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.807.267.009.4317.24%13.77%14.29%10.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alexander Zverev (Local): 87.37%; Juncheng Shang (Visit): 12.63%. For Juncheng Shang (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.91. 11 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 9.43, producing a positive expected value of +19.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.81%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.13%G +0.000%9.43I 10.60%NM 10.19%EV +19.15%E +2.03%K +2.27%G +0.435%4.1%2026-10-01 14:25
DraftKings🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.48%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.13%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.52%EV +14.98%E +1.65%K +1.85%G +0.277%4.4%2026-10-01 13:15
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -7.39%E -6.97%K -123.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +13.71%E +1.52%K +1.71%G +0.235%5.5%2026-10-01 13:50
William Hill🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -7.39%E -6.97%K -123.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +13.71%E +1.52%K +1.71%G +0.235%5.5%2026-10-01 13:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -7.39%E -6.97%K -123.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +13.71%E +1.52%K +1.71%G +0.235%5.5%2026-10-01 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -7.39%E -6.97%K -123.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +13.71%E +1.52%K +1.71%G +0.235%5.5%2026-10-01 13:55
Betway🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.13%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +7.40%E +0.870%K +0.986%G +0.073%5.2%2026-10-01 13:55
Coolbet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.24%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.76%EV +2.34%E +0.289%K +0.330%G +0.008%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
FanDuel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.24%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.76%EV +2.34%E +0.289%K +0.330%G +0.008%4.9%2026-10-01 13:55
Bet Right🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.08%E +0.135%K +0.154%G +0.002%5.1%2026-10-01 14:20
Bovada🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.08%E +0.135%K +0.154%G +0.002%5.1%2026-10-01 13:23
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.14%EV -8.27%E -7.87%K -165.33%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV -1.45%E -0.186%K -0.213%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 13:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.24%E -0.698%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.24%E -0.698%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 13:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.24%E -0.698%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 14:30
PlayUp🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.24%E -0.698%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 13:40
GTbets🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.24%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.02%G +0.000%7.45I 13.42%NM 12.76%EV -5.87%E -0.788%K -0.910%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 13:45
1xBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.00%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%7.43I 13.46%NM 13.00%EV -6.12%E -0.824%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-01 13:50
LeoVegas🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.47%EV -7.39%E -6.97%K -123.22%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.53%EV -6.50%E -0.879%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Fanatics🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.01%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.02%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.99%EV -7.77%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 13:40
theScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -8.40%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 14:30
NordicBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.96%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.04%EV -9.03%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-01 14:30
Betsson🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.96%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.04%EV -9.03%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-01 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.56%E -1.65%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-01 13:55
Caesars🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.56%E -1.65%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-01 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.08%EV -3.90%E -3.54%K -38.98%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.92%EV -14.08%E -2.07%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 14:34
BetRivers🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
TABtouch🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
betPARX🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Bally Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.73%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 14:30
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -17.87%E -2.75%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 13:25
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -17.87%E -2.75%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 13:25
Sky Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -17.87%E -2.75%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 13:30
ReBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.08%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.13%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -22.93%E -3.76%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-01 14:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.08%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.13%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -22.93%E -3.76%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-01 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.87%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -24.19%E -4.03%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-01 13:38
Winamax (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.55%EV -7.39%E -6.97%K -123.22%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.45%EV -26.72%E -4.61%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-01 14:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.08%EV -7.39%E -6.97%K -123.22%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.92%EV -29.24%E -5.22%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-01 14:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 88.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.07%5.1%2026-10-01 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 88.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.07%5.1%2026-10-01 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 88.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.07%5.1%2026-10-01 14:15
Matchbook◎1.07I 93.46%NM 88.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.07%5.1%2026-10-01 14:15
Smarkets◎1.06I 94.34%NM 85.79%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%10.0%2026-10-01 13:40