Language:English
Alexander Zverev v Juncheng Shang
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexander Zverev (Local)
Prediction 88.97%1.12fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -2.78%
Kelly -33.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.85%88.91%89.05%90.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.071.071.0997.09%93.61%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Juncheng Shang (Visit)
Prediction 11.03%9.06fair odd
EV +10.88%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.131%
assuming max odds 10.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.50%11.09%10.95%13.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.368.0010.0514.29%11.96%12.50%9.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Zverev (Local): 88.97%; Juncheng Shang (Visit): 11.03%. For Juncheng Shang (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.06. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.88%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.38%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 10.05I 9.95%NM 9.62%EV +10.88%E +1.08%K +1.20%G +0.131% | 3.4% | 2026-10-03 10:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67%EV +10.32%E +1.03%K +1.15%G +0.118% | 3.5% | 2026-10-03 05:01 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -6.58%E -6.27%K -131.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +10.32%E +1.03%K +1.15%G +0.118% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 10:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -6.58%E -6.27%K -131.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +10.32%E +1.03%K +1.15%G +0.118% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 10:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -6.58%E -6.27%K -131.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +10.32%E +1.03%K +1.15%G +0.118% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 10:31 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -6.58%E -6.27%K -131.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +10.32%E +1.03%K +1.15%G +0.118% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 10:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -6.58%E -6.27%K -131.68%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +4.81%E +0.506%K +0.566%G +0.027% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 04:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.68%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.32%EV +2.60%E +0.280%K +0.313%G +0.008% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 05:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV -0.708%E -0.079%K -0.088%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 10:08 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -0.708%E -0.079%K -0.088%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 10:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -0.708%E -0.079%K -0.088%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 02:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.58%E -6.27%K -131.68%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -0.708%E -0.079%K -0.088%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 10:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -8.36%E -8.12%K -278.78%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -0.708%E -0.079%K -0.088%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-03 02:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.16%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.84%EV -2.91%E -0.331%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 10:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.34%EV -6.58%E -6.27%K -131.68%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.66%EV -2.91%E -0.331%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-03 10:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -3.47%E -0.396%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 20:26 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -4.02%E -0.462%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 10:51 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -4.02%E -0.462%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 00:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -4.02%E -0.462%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 08:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.77%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.54I 11.71%NM 11.23%EV -5.78%E -0.677%K -0.767%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-02 22:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.77%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.54I 11.71%NM 11.23%EV -5.78%E -0.677%K -0.767%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-02 22:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -6.22%E -0.732%K -0.830%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-02 12:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -6.22%E -0.732%K -0.830%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 20:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.69%E -5.37%K -94.91%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -6.22%E -0.732%K -0.830%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 08:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.69%E -5.37%K -94.91%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -6.22%E -0.732%K -0.830%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 05:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.76%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.45I 11.83%NM 11.24%EV -6.78%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 20:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.54%EV -3.03%E -2.78%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 8.42I 11.88%NM 11.46%EV -7.11%E -0.844%K -0.958%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-02 17:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.79%EV -5.69%E -5.37%K -94.91%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.21%EV -7.33%E -0.872%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 10:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.79%EV -5.69%E -5.37%K -94.91%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.21%EV -7.33%E -0.872%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 10:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:38 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 05:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 05:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 10:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 08:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 08:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.69%E -5.37%K -94.91%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -11.74%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 01:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -14.50%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 23:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.87%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -14.50%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 08:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.97%EV -5.69%E -5.37%K -94.91%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV -14.50%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-03 05:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.06%EV -8.36%E -8.12%K -278.78%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 11.94%EV -16.15%E -2.13%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-03 10:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -4.80%E -4.49%K -68.64%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -17.26%E -2.30%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-02 18:52 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -5.69%E -5.37%K -94.91%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -17.26%E -2.30%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-03 05:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -5.69%E -5.37%K -94.91%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -17.26%E -2.30%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-03 05:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 87.82%EV -7.47%E -7.19%K -186.84%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -17.26%E -2.30%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -20.01%E -2.76%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 08:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -3.92%E -3.63%K -48.94%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -20.01%E -2.76%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 08:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -5.69%E -5.37%K -94.91%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -22.77%E -3.25%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-02 19:42 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -5.69%E -5.37%K -94.91%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -22.77%E -3.25%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-02 19:38 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.33% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.67% | 0.3% | 2026-10-03 09:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.33% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.67% | 0.3% | 2026-10-03 09:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.33% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.67% | 0.3% | 2026-10-03 09:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 0.6% | 2026-10-03 10:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 09:41 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 10:55 |