Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Yannick Hanfmann v Nuno Borges

2026-08-06 16:30 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (16 en el análisis )

42%

58%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Yannick Hanfmann (Local)

Predicción 41.61%2.40momio equitativo

EV -0.979%

Ventaja -0.411%

Kelly -0.709%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

40.50%41.59%41.61%43.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.102.252.242.3847.62%44.42%44.64%42.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nuno Borges (Visitante)

Predicción 58.39%1.71momio equitativo

EV -2.48%

Ventaja -1.49%

Kelly -3.70%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

56.85%58.41%58.39%59.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.541.621.631.6764.94%61.60%61.35%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Yannick Hanfmann (Local): 41.61%; Nuno Borges (Visitante): 58.39%. Para Yannick Hanfmann (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.40. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.38, con un valor esperado de -0.979%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
Sky Bet🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -0.979%E -0.411%K -0.709%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -5.40%E -3.33%K -8.71%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-08-05 18:40
FanDuel🎯	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -1.81%E -0.767%K -1.33%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -5.98%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-05 18:40
Coolbet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.23%E -0.948%K -1.65%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-05 18:50
SportsBet🎯	2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -2.64%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-05 18:40
1xBet🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.48%E -1.50%K -2.63%G +0.000%	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.23%E -2.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-05 20:15
DraftKings🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.48%E -1.50%K -2.63%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.40%E -3.33%K -8.71%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-05 18:40
Fanatics🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.31%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-05 18:30
NordicBet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.31%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-05 18:53
Betsson🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.31%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-05 18:55
William Hill🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.31%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.33%K -8.71%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-05 18:55
888sport🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.31%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.98%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-05 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.31%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.98%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-05 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.31%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.98%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-05 18:20
Paddy Power🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.31%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.32%E -5.30%K -14.60%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-05 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -4.72%E -2.06%K -3.66%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.40%E -3.33%K -8.71%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 20:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-05 20:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-05 18:40
betfred_uk🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.40%E -3.33%K -8.71%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-05 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.40%E -3.33%K -8.71%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-05 18:40
Betr (AU)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.98%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-08-05 19:30
theScore Bet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.98%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-08-05 18:40
Betway🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-08-05 18:40
LeoVegas🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.32%E -5.30%K -14.60%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-08-05 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.32%E -5.30%K -14.60%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-08-05 19:40
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -6.80%E -3.04%K -5.49%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-05 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
BetRivers🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
TABtouch🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
Virgin Bet🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
Grosvenor🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
Unibet (NL)🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
Casumo🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
Unibet🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
ATG (SE)🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
Bally Bet🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
betPARX🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 19:25
GTbets🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -7.64%E -3.44%K -6.26%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.70%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-05 18:20
ReBet🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -7.64%E -3.44%K -6.26%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 58.27%EV -7.15%E -4.50%K -12.12%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-08-05 18:40
Dabble (AU)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.47%E -3.85%K -7.06%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.70%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-05 20:20
PlayUp🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.47%E -3.85%K -7.06%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-05 19:55
betano_uk🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.47%E -3.85%K -7.06%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-08-05 19:24
Bet Victor🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.47%E -3.85%K -7.06%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-08-05 19:24
PMU (FR)🎯	2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -9.30%E -4.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.22%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-05 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.17I 46.08%NM 41.98%EV -9.72%E -4.48%K -8.30%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -8.32%E -5.30%K -14.60%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-08-05 18:39
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.55%E -4.91%K -9.17%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -8.90%E -5.71%K -15.90%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-08-05 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%EV -12.63%E -6.01%K -11.48%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 57.69%EV -10.07%E -6.54%K -18.65%G +0.000%	12.6%	2026-08-05 18:39

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Novig◎	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%	2.6%	2026-08-05 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.16I 46.30%NM 42.40%	1.59I 62.89%NM 57.60%	9.2%	2026-08-05 20:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.16I 46.30%NM 42.40%	1.59I 62.89%NM 57.60%	9.2%	2026-08-05 20:15
Smarkets◎	2.16I 46.30%NM 41.94%	1.56I 64.10%NM 58.06%	10.4%	2026-08-05 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.16I 46.30%NM 32.29%	1.03I 97.09%NM 67.71%	43.4%	2026-08-05 18:15
Matchbook◎	1.06I 94.34%NM 60.15%	1.60I 62.50%NM 39.85%	56.8%	2026-08-05 20:20