Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jiri Lehecka v Rafael Jodar

2026-08-08 16:30 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jiri Lehecka (Local)

Predicción 44.06%2.27momio equitativo
EV -0.432%
Ventaja -0.191%
Kelly -0.343%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.16%43.94%44.10%45.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.172.202.2650.00%46.17%45.45%44.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Rafael Jodar (Visitante)

Predicción 55.94%1.79momio equitativo
EV -3.22%
Ventaja -1.86%
Kelly -4.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.38%56.06%55.90%57.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.601.671.661.7362.50%60.04%60.24%57.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jiri Lehecka (Local): 44.06%; Rafael Jodar (Visitante): 55.94%. Para Jiri Lehecka (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.27. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.26, con un valor esperado de -0.432%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
GTbets🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -0.432%E -0.191%K -0.343%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -7.69%E -4.66%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 05:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.69%E -4.66%K -11.84%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 06:30
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:36
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:36
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:36
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:36
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:36
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:40
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:40
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:41
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:41
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:41
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -0.873%E -0.388%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.25%E -5.03%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 05:40
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -1.31%E -0.586%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -6.01%E -3.58%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-07 07:19
FanDuel🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -2.19%E -0.989%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -6.01%E -3.58%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 07:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -2.64%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -7.13%E -4.30%K -10.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-07 07:20
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.08%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.46%E -3.23%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 07:11
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.08%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.01%E -3.58%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 07:10
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.08%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.57%E -3.94%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 07:11
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.08%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.57%E -3.94%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 07:11
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.08%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.57%E -3.94%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 07:10
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.08%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.57%E -3.94%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 07:10
Dabble (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -3.08%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.13%E -4.30%K -10.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 07:24
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.08%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.69%E -4.66%K -11.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-07 07:05
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -3.08%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.37%E -5.78%K -15.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 07:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -3.08%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.93%E -6.17%K -16.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 05:40
NordicBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.40%E -2.03%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.90%E -2.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 07:19
Betsson🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.40%E -2.03%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.90%E -2.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 07:20
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.28%E -2.46%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.46%E -3.23%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 07:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.46%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.01%E -3.58%K -8.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 07:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.46%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.01%E -3.58%K -8.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 07:20
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.28%E -2.46%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.69%E -4.66%K -11.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 07:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.18%EV -7.04%E -3.34%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.82%EV -6.57%E -3.94%K -9.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-07 07:20
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.22%E -1.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 07:10
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.22%E -1.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 07:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.22%E -1.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 07:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.22%E -1.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 07:10
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.34%E -2.54%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-07 07:15
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.90%E -2.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 07:19
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.46%E -3.23%K -7.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 07:20
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.57%E -3.94%K -9.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 07:17
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.57%E -3.94%K -9.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 07:18
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.69%E -4.66%K -11.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-07 07:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.69%E -4.66%K -11.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-07 07:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -3.78%E -2.20%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 07:16
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -3.78%E -2.20%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 07:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.90%E -2.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 07:15
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.90%E -2.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 07:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -8.81%E -5.41%K -13.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-07 07:19
ReBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -8.81%E -5.41%K -13.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-07 07:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.60%EV -11.89%E -5.94%K -11.89%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -9.93%E -6.17%K -16.28%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-07 07:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -11.89%E -5.94%K -11.89%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -10.49%E -6.56%K -17.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-07 07:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%3.9%2026-08-07 07:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%5.9%2026-08-07 07:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.28%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.72%9.0%2026-08-07 07:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 47.41%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.59%9.3%2026-08-07 07:25
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%11.0%2026-08-07 07:50