Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jiri Lehecka v Alexander Blockx

Inicio: 2026-08-06 22:00 UTC

Final: Jiri Lehecka 2–0 Alexander Blockx

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jiri Lehecka (Local)

Predicción 65.12%1.54momio equitativo
EV -0.362%
Ventaja -0.237%
Kelly -0.683%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.03%65.06%65.27%67.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.401.471.471.5371.43%68.15%68.03%65.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Alexander Blockx (Visitante)

Predicción 34.88%2.87momio equitativo
EV +3.93%
Ventaja +1.32%
Kelly +1.99%
Crecimiento +0.078%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.27%34.94%34.73%37.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.682.702.9840.00%37.35%37.04%33.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Jiri Lehecka (Local): 65.12%; Alexander Blockx (Visitante): 34.88%. Para Alexander Blockx (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.87. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.98, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.93%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -7.53%E -5.30%K -17.92%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV +3.93%E +1.32%K +1.99%G +0.078%4.0%2026-08-06 21:40
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.28%EV -7.53%E -5.30%K -17.92%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.72%EV +1.84%E +0.631%K +0.959%G +0.018%4.7%2026-08-06 21:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -5.57%E -3.84%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -0.251%E -0.088%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-06 19:56
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -5.57%E -3.84%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -0.251%E -0.088%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-06 19:56
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.59%EV -2.97%E -1.99%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.41%EV -0.949%E -0.334%K -0.516%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-06 21:41
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -0.949%E -0.334%K -0.516%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-06 19:25
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.28%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.72%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.709%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 19:26
Coolbet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -2.97%E -1.99%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -2.34%E -0.837%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-06 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.62%E -2.44%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -2.34%E -0.837%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-06 21:51
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.34%E -0.837%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 19:25
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -5.57%E -3.84%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.20%EV -2.69%E -0.965%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 16:10
Bovada🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.27%E -2.90%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:44
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.27%E -2.90%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:50
BetAnything🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.27%E -2.90%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.92%E -3.37%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 21:51
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:50
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 18:41
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 19:46
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:51
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:50
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 19:56
NetBet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -7.53%E -5.30%K -17.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -4.09%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-06 21:51
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.62%E -2.44%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.83%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 21:51
ReBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.62%E -2.44%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.83%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 21:51
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.62%E -2.44%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.83%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 21:51
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.62%E -2.44%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.83%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 21:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.57%E -3.84%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.83%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 21:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.57%E -3.84%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.83%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 21:45
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.83%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 19:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.83%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 19:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.83%E -6.31%K -22.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -5.83%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-06 21:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -4.27%E -2.90%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -6.88%E -2.58%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-06 21:40
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.27%E -2.90%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.58%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:51
Neds🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.92%E -3.37%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -7.58%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 19:51
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.92%E -3.37%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -7.58%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 19:45
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.57%E -3.84%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -7.58%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-06 21:50
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.57%E -3.84%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -7.58%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-06 20:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.22%E -4.32%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -7.58%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-06 21:21
Dabble (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.32%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 21:50
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.62%E -2.44%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.32%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 21:50
GTbets🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.27%E -2.90%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -9.32%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 21:20
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.57%E -3.84%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.32%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 21:50
Fanatics🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.57%E -3.84%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.32%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:54
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:54
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:55
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:54
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:55
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:55
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:55
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:53
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 09:55
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -0.362%E -0.237%K -0.683%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -12.81%E -5.12%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 10:24
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.32%E -1.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -12.81%E -5.12%K -8.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-06 21:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.62%E -2.44%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -12.81%E -5.12%K -8.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-06 11:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-08-06 21:51
Matchbook◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-08-06 21:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-08-06 21:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-08-06 21:41
Novig◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.74%2.99I 33.44%NM 33.26%0.6%2026-08-06 21:51
ProphetX◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.21%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.79%1.4%2026-08-06 21:51
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.0%2026-08-06 21:51