Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Hubert Hurkacz v Marcos Giron

Início: 2026-08-04 15:05 UTC

Final: Hubert Hurkacz 2–1 Marcos Giron

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

66 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Hubert Hurkacz (Local)

Previsão 62.02%1.61odd justa
EV -2.01%
Vantagem -1.27%
Kelly -3.47%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.58

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
60.26%62.02%62.03%62.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.471.531.541.5868.03%65.22%64.94%63.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Marcos Giron (Visitante)

Previsão 37.98%2.63odd justa
EV -2.01%
Vantagem -0.779%
Kelly -1.27%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.58

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
37.03%37.98%37.97%39.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.352.492.502.5842.55%40.20%40.00%38.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Hubert Hurkacz (Local): 62.02%; Marcos Giron (Visitante): 37.98%. Para Marcos Giron (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.63. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.58, com valor esperado de -2.01%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (66 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -2.01%E -1.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -8.85%E -3.69%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 14:49
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -2.63%E -1.68%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -3.15%E -1.23%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-04 11:45
Dabble (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.63%E -1.68%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -8.85%E -3.69%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 14:54
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -2.01%E -0.779%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-04 11:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -2.77%E -1.08%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-04 14:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -2.77%E -1.08%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-04 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 14:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -6.95%E -2.84%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 14:40
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.87%E -2.50%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-04 11:49
GTbets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -3.87%E -2.50%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 20:55
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.87%E -2.50%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.85%E -3.69%K -6.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 14:50
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.87%E -2.50%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -10.74%E -4.57%K -7.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 14:34
BetAnything🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.15%E -1.23%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 12:09
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.15%E -1.23%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 11:52
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.15%E -1.23%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 11:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 14:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 11:49
ReBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 14:04
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 11:49
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 11:49
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:34
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:35
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:35
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:35
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:34
betPARX🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:34
Bally Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.81%E -2.34%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 14:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.68%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.32%EV -2.39%E -0.929%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-04 14:50
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.15%E -1.23%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 11:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.15%E -1.23%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 11:50
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -3.53%E -1.39%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 07:55
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 06:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 07:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 06:59
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 11:49
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 11:50
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 11:44
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 06:59
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 06:59
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 05:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 11:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.95%E -2.84%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 11:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.95%E -2.84%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 14:50
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.95%E -2.84%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 14:55
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.95%E -2.84%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 14:55
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.85%E -3.69%K -6.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 14:17
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -3.53%E -1.39%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 14:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.38%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.62%EV -4.29%E -1.70%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 14:34
Neds🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.95%E -2.84%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.95%E -2.84%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 14:50
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -6.35%E -4.21%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.95%E -2.84%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 12:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.68%EV -6.35%E -4.21%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%EV -7.71%E -3.17%K -5.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-04 14:35
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.94%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -3.53%E -1.39%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 14:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.94%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -6.19%E -2.50%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-04 11:54
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.85%E -3.69%K -6.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-04 11:53
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.85%E -3.69%K -6.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-04 11:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 14:50
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 14:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.05%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 11:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74%0.1%2026-08-04 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92%0.3%2026-08-04 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-08-04 14:55
Matchbook1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%0.9%2026-08-04 14:55
ProphetX1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%1.4%2026-08-04 14:55
Novig1.55I 64.52%NM 63.53%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.47%1.6%2026-08-04 14:55
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%2.4%2026-08-04 14:55