Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hubert Hurkacz v Marcos Giron

2026-08-03 13:00 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

62%

38%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hubert Hurkacz (Local)

Predicción 62.26%1.61momio equitativo

EV -2.26%

Ventaja -1.44%

Kelly -3.96%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

59.95%62.37%62.22%66.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.431.501.501.5769.93%66.88%66.67%63.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Marcos Giron (Visitante)

Predicción 37.74%2.65momio equitativo

EV +5.68%

Ventaja +2.03%

Kelly +3.15%

Crecimiento +0.179%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

33.81%37.63%37.78%40.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.302.572.502.8043.48%38.87%40.00%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Hubert Hurkacz (Local): 62.26%; Marcos Giron (Visitante): 37.74%. Para Marcos Giron (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.65. 12 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.80, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +5.68%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
Hard Rock Bet	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -10.35%E -7.19%K -23.52%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.2%	2026-08-02 15:19
Virgin Bet	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -10.35%E -7.19%K -23.52%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.2%	2026-08-02 15:20
Casumo	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -10.97%E -7.67%K -25.51%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.6%	2026-08-02 15:20
PMU (FR)	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -10.97%E -7.67%K -25.51%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.6%	2026-08-02 15:19
TABtouch	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -10.97%E -7.67%K -25.51%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.6%	2026-08-02 15:20
Unibet (NL)	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -10.97%E -7.67%K -25.51%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.6%	2026-08-02 15:20
Grosvenor	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -10.97%E -7.67%K -25.51%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.6%	2026-08-02 15:20
Unibet	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -10.97%E -7.67%K -25.51%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.6%	2026-08-02 15:20
betPARX	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -10.97%E -7.67%K -25.51%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.6%	2026-08-02 15:20
Svenska Spel	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -10.97%E -7.67%K -25.51%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.6%	2026-08-02 15:20
ATG (SE)	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -10.97%E -7.67%K -25.51%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.6%	2026-08-02 15:19
Bally Bet	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -10.97%E -7.67%K -25.51%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +5.68%E +2.03%K +3.15%G +0.179%	5.6%	2026-08-02 15:19
Coolbet	1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.50%E -2.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -1.87%E -0.719%K -1.17%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-08-02 12:10
Winamax (DE)	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -4.12%E -2.68%K -7.63%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -1.87%E -0.719%K -1.17%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-08-02 14:00
FanDuel	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -5.37%E -3.53%K -10.32%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -2.63%E -1.02%K -1.66%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-02 13:05
BetOnline.ag	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -2.88%E -1.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -3.00%E -1.17%K -1.91%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-08-02 13:50
LowVig.ag	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -2.88%E -1.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -3.00%E -1.17%K -1.91%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-08-02 13:50
SportsBet	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.90%EV -5.99%E -3.97%K -11.75%G +0.000%	2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV -3.38%E -1.32%K -2.17%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-02 15:05
GTbets	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.05%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.56I 39.06%NM 36.95%EV -3.38%E -1.32%K -2.17%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-08-02 13:19
Pinnacle	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.88%E -1.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-08-02 12:10
BetAnything	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.88%E -1.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-08-02 14:49
DraftKings	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.37%E -3.53%K -10.32%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-02 13:09
Everygame	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-02 14:40
888sport	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.75%E -3.10%K -8.95%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-02 12:04
Mr Green (SE)	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.75%E -3.10%K -8.95%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-02 12:05
888sport (SE)	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.75%E -3.10%K -8.95%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-02 12:05
Sky Bet	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.75%E -3.10%K -8.95%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-02 13:44
betfred_uk	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.75%E -3.10%K -8.95%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-02 13:54
Betr (AU)	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.37%E -3.53%K -10.32%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-02 13:09
PointsBet (AU)	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-02 11:35
Betway	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-02 11:35
Paddy Power	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-02 13:29
Winamax (FR)	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-02 13:45
Tipico (DE)	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.48%E -5.77%K -18.04%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.64%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-08-02 13:49
Marathon Bet	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.94%EV -4.75%E -3.10%K -8.95%G +0.000%	2.49I 40.16%NM 38.06%EV -6.02%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-02 12:14
Unibet (UK)	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -6.78%E -2.74%K -4.61%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-02 13:44
1xBet	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -3.50%E -2.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -7.15%E -2.91%K -4.90%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-02 13:30
Dabble (AU)	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.50%E -2.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.53%E -3.07%K -5.19%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-02 14:39
Fliff	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -5.99%E -3.97%K -11.75%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.53%E -3.07%K -5.19%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-02 14:10
theScore Bet	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.53%E -3.07%K -5.19%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-02 13:10
LeoVegas	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.53%E -3.07%K -5.19%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-02 13:19
Betclic (FR)	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.09%EV -7.24%E -4.86%K -14.77%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 37.91%EV -7.91%E -3.24%K -5.49%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-08-02 12:50
ReBet	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.09%EV -7.24%E -4.86%K -14.77%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 37.91%EV -7.91%E -3.24%K -5.49%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-08-02 15:04
BetRivers	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -2.88%E -1.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -8.29%E -3.41%K -5.79%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-02 13:30
Unibet (SE)	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -2.88%E -1.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -8.29%E -3.41%K -5.79%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-02 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -2.88%E -1.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -8.29%E -3.41%K -5.79%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-02 13:30
LiveScore Bet	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -2.88%E -1.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -8.29%E -3.41%K -5.79%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-02 14:25
NetBet (FR)	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.05%EV -7.86%E -5.31%K -16.37%G +0.000%	2.42I 41.32%NM 37.95%EV -8.66%E -3.58%K -6.10%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-08-02 14:14
PlayUp	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.50%E -2.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.42%E -3.92%K -6.73%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-02 14:14
BetMGM	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.12%E -2.68%K -7.63%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -9.42%E -3.92%K -6.73%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-08-02 12:53
Caesars	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.75%E -3.10%K -8.95%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.42%E -3.92%K -6.73%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-02 14:17
Bet Victor	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.42%E -3.92%K -6.73%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-08-02 13:40
betano_uk	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.61%E -4.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.42%E -3.92%K -6.73%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-08-02 14:03
Neds	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -2.26%E -1.44%K -3.96%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -11.31%E -4.81%K -8.37%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-02 13:19
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -2.26%E -1.44%K -3.96%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -11.31%E -4.81%K -8.37%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-02 14:15
Unibet (FR)	1.45I 68.97%NM 61.33%EV -9.73%E -6.71%K -21.61%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -13.19%E -5.74%K -10.15%G +0.000%	12.4%	2026-08-02 13:40

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Matchbook	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%	2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%	1.2%	2026-08-02 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%	1.5%	2026-08-02 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%	1.5%	2026-08-02 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%	1.5%	2026-08-02 14:45
Smarkets	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%	2.9%	2026-08-02 15:20
Novig	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%	5.4%	2026-08-02 15:20

Arbitraje (96 combinaciones) +0.59%Neds 1.57 (64.1%) / BetRivers 2.80 (35.9%)Ver las 96 combinaciones

Hubert Hurkacz (Local)	Marcos Giron (Visitante)	Margen
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	Hard Rock Bet 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	Virgin Bet 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	Casumo 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	PMU (FR) 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	TABtouch 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	Unibet (NL) 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	Grosvenor 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	Unibet 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	betPARX 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	Svenska Spel 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	ATG (SE) 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Neds 1.57 (64.1%)	Bally Bet 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	Hard Rock Bet 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	Virgin Bet 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	Casumo 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	PMU (FR) 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	TABtouch 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	Unibet (NL) 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	Grosvenor 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	Unibet 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	betPARX 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	Svenska Spel 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	ATG (SE) 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
Ladbrokes (AU) 1.57 (64.1%)	Bally Bet 2.80 (35.9%)	+0.595%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Hard Rock Bet 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Virgin Bet 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Casumo 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	PMU (FR) 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	TABtouch 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Unibet (NL) 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Grosvenor 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Unibet 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	betPARX 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Svenska Spel 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	ATG (SE) 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
BetOnline.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Bally Bet 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Hard Rock Bet 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Virgin Bet 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Casumo 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	PMU (FR) 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	TABtouch 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Unibet (NL) 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Grosvenor 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Unibet 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	betPARX 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Svenska Spel 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	ATG (SE) 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
LowVig.ag 1.56 (64.2%)	Bally Bet 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
Pinnacle 1.56 (64.2%)	Hard Rock Bet 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%
Pinnacle 1.56 (64.2%)	Virgin Bet 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%

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