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Daniel Merida Aguilar v Liam Draxl
Head to Head
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prediction 55.08%1.82fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -4.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%55.16%55.11%55.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.721.7559.88%58.17%58.14%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Liam Draxl (Visit)
Prediction 44.92%2.23fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.950%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.10%44.84%44.89%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.122.122.1848.78%47.14%47.17%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 55.08%; Liam Draxl (Visit): 44.92%. For Liam Draxl (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.18, with an expected value of -2.07%; they do not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.24%EV -3.61%E -2.06%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-01 20:35 |
| Betway | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.71%E -2.73%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.66%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 15:00 |
| 888sport | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.71%E -2.73%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.66%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 21:15 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -2.07%E -0.950%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-01 20:34 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -2.07%E -0.950%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-01 20:35 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:59 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:59 |
| Grosvenor | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| betPARX | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| Casumo | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 15:25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 15:24 |
| TABtouch | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 15:39 |
| Unibet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 15:45 |
| Bally Bet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 16:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 17:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.77%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 17:14 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.09%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.91%EV -5.21%E -2.47%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 16:24 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.27%E -3.06%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.66%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 20:30 |
| Bovada | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.82%E -3.40%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.42%E -1.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 17:30 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.82%E -3.40%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.66%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 14:59 |
| BoyleSports | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.02%E -4.80%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-01 14:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 22:10 |