Language:English
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Liam Draxl
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prediction 58.56%1.71fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -4.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.37%58.69%58.52%60.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.621.621.6664.52%61.67%61.73%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Liam Draxl (Visit)
Prediction 41.44%2.41fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.628%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.66%41.31%41.48%42.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.272.252.4545.87%43.97%44.44%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 58.56%; Liam Draxl (Visit): 41.44%. For Liam Draxl (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.72%E -3.56%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.54%E +0.628%K +1.06%G +0.016% | 2.9% | 2026-08-04 16:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.72%E -3.56%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.54%E +0.628%K +1.06%G +0.016% | 2.9% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV +0.294%E +0.122%K +0.207%G +0.001% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -0.535%E -0.223%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.90%E -4.34%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -0.535%E -0.223%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 17:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.61%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.85%E -1.66%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 16:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.26%E -1.85%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 14:33 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 16:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 16:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 16:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 15:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 16:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.90%E -4.34%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 16:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 17:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 14:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -5.09%E -2.22%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.51%E -2.42%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 16:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:33 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 17:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 14:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 14:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 17:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 17:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -8.65%E -5.55%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-04 17:08 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -9.65%E -4.43%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05% | 0.0% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.06% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.94% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02% | 2.5% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
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