مدرسة الاحتمالاتodds.tennis
النموذج الافتراضيالمتوسط بين الربيعين (القائمة المنتقاة)
+ نموذج جديدجميع النماذج

Daniel Merida Aguilar v Liam Draxl

البداية: 2026-08-04 17:20 UTC

النتيجة النهائية: Daniel Merida Aguilar 2–1 Liam Draxl

أسعار الإغلاق — الاحتمالات والقيمة المتوقعة المحسوبة من آخر الأسعار المسجلة قبل البداية وفق النموذج المحدد. بدأت المباراة، لذا فهذه ليست أرقامًا مباشرة. قيّم موثوقية التنبؤات الاحتمالية لكل نموذج بمقارنتها بنتائج جميع المباريات المحسومة →

نتيجة المباراة

64 شركة مراهنات (21 في التحليل )

الاحتمال المقدّر لكل نتيجة وفق النموذج: المتوسط بين الربيعين (القائمة المنتقاة)

Daniel Merida Aguilar (المضيف)

التنبؤ 58.56%1.71السعر العادل
EV -2.80%
الأفضلية -1.68%
Kelly -4.24%
النمو +0.000%

بافتراض سعر أقصى قدره 1.66

توزيع تنبؤات شركات المراهنات
57.37%58.69%58.52%60.34%الأدنىالمتوسطالوسيطالأقصى
توزيع الأسعار
1.551.621.621.6664.52%61.67%61.73%60.24%الأدنىالمتوسطالوسيطالأقصى

Liam Draxl (الضيف)

التنبؤ 41.44%2.41السعر العادل
EV +1.54%
الأفضلية +0.628%
Kelly +1.06%
النمو +0.016%

بافتراض سعر أقصى قدره 2.45

توزيع تنبؤات شركات المراهنات
39.66%41.31%41.48%42.63%الأدنىالمتوسطالوسيطالأقصى
توزيع الأسعار
2.182.272.252.4545.87%43.97%44.44%40.82%الأدنىالمتوسطالوسيطالأقصى

وفق آخر الأسعار قبل البداية، قدّر نموذج ⁨المتوسط بين الربيعين (القائمة المنتقاة)⁩ احتمالات سوق ⁨نتيجة المباراة⁩ كالآتي: ⁨Daniel Merida Aguilar (المضيف)⁩: ⁨58.56%⁩؛ ⁨Liam Draxl (الضيف)⁩: ⁨41.44%⁩. بالنسبة إلى ⁨Liam Draxl (الضيف)⁩، كان هذا التقدير يعادل سعرًا عشريًا عادلًا قدره ⁨2.41⁩. عرضت 3 شركات مراهنات أسعار إغلاق أعلى من ذلك المستوى؛ وكان أفضل سعر ⁨2.45⁩، بما يقابل قيمة متوقعة موجبة قدرها ⁨+1.54%⁩.

أسعار شركات المراهنات (64 شركة مراهنات)

لسنا تابعين لأي شركة مراهنات، ولا نحقق أي عائد من الرهانات أو المعاملات التي تُجرى لديها.

شركة المراهناتالمضيفالضيف ▼الهامشآخر تحديث
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.72%E -3.56%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.54%E +0.628%K +1.06%G +0.016%2.9%2026-08-04 16:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.72%E -3.56%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.54%E +0.628%K +1.06%G +0.016%2.9%2026-08-04 16:40
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV +0.294%E +0.122%K +0.207%G +0.001%3.1%2026-08-04 16:50
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -0.535%E -0.223%K -0.382%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-04 17:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.90%E -4.34%K -11.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -0.535%E -0.223%K -0.382%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 17:04
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.61%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 16:40
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.85%E -1.66%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 16:09
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.26%E -1.85%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 17:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-04 17:15
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 14:33
FanDuel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-04 16:39
DraftKings🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 17:15
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 16:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 16:10
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 16:40
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 15:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 17:10
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 16:44
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.90%E -4.34%K -11.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 16:34
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 16:35
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-04 17:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-04 17:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-04 17:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 16:35
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -5.09%E -2.22%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:44
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.51%E -2.42%K -4.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 16:59
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:15
BetAnything🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 14:33
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:15
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 16:15
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 17:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 17:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 17:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 17:15
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 16:45
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 17:10
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 16:45
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 14:10
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 14:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:14
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:14
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 16:15
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-04 17:10
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 17:14
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 17:14
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -8.65%E -5.55%K -15.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-04 17:08
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -9.65%E -4.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 16:15
الهامش = الهامش · I = الاحتمال الضمني · NM = الاحتمال بلا هامش · EV = القيمة المتوقعة · E = الأفضلية · K = معيار Kelly · G = نمو رأس مال المراهنات

آخر تحديث هو وقت آخر تغيير أجرته كل شركة على سعرها؛ فالوقت الأقدم يعني أن السعر لم يتحرك فحسب، لا أنه متقادم. تُستبعد عادة الشركات التي لم تصل عنها بيانات خلال نحو 15 دقيقة؛ ولا تُعرض آخر الأسعار المسجلة بدلًا من ذلك إلا إذا انقطع تدفق بيانات السوق كله.

بورصات المراهنات (7)

شركة المراهناتالمضيفالضيفالهامش ▲آخر تحديث
Matchbook◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95%2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05%0.0%2026-08-04 17:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%0.7%2026-08-04 16:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%0.7%2026-08-04 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-08-04 17:15
ProphetX◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.06%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.94%1.1%2026-08-04 16:40
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%2.5%2026-08-04 16:45
Novig◎1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%3.4%2026-08-04 17:15