Idioma:Español
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Liam Draxl
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Predicción 58.56%1.71momio equitativo
EV -2.80%
Ventaja -1.68%
Kelly -4.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.37%58.69%58.52%60.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.551.621.621.6664.52%61.67%61.73%60.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Liam Draxl (Visitante)
Predicción 41.44%2.41momio equitativo
EV +1.54%
Ventaja +0.628%
Kelly +1.06%
Crecimiento +0.016%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.66%41.31%41.48%42.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.182.272.252.4545.87%43.97%44.44%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 58.56%; Liam Draxl (Visitante): 41.44%. Para Liam Draxl (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.41. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.45, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.54%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.72%E -3.56%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.54%E +0.628%K +1.06%G +0.016% | 2.9% | 2026-08-04 16:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.72%E -3.56%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.54%E +0.628%K +1.06%G +0.016% | 2.9% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV +0.294%E +0.122%K +0.207%G +0.001% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -0.535%E -0.223%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.90%E -4.34%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -0.535%E -0.223%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 17:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.61%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.85%E -1.66%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 16:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.26%E -1.85%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 14:33 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 16:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 16:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 16:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 15:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 16:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.90%E -4.34%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 16:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 17:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 14:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.68%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -5.09%E -2.22%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.51%E -2.42%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 16:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:33 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 17:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 14:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 14:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 17:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 17:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -8.65%E -5.55%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-04 17:08 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -9.65%E -4.43%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 16:15 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05% | 0.0% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.06% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.94% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02% | 2.5% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |