Language:English
Casper Ruud v Joao Fonseca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Casper Ruud (Local)
Prediction 43.87%2.28fair odd
EV -0.422%
Edge -0.186%
Kelly -0.333%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%43.80%43.95%45.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.162.2748.78%46.33%46.30%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joao Fonseca (Visit)
Prediction 56.13%1.78fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -3.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.38%56.20%56.05%57.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.691.691.7362.50%59.23%59.17%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casper Ruud (Local): 43.87%; Joao Fonseca (Visit): 56.13%. For Casper Ruud (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.27, with an expected value of -0.422%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.96%EV -0.422%E -0.186%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.04%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-08-07 22:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -0.422%E -0.186%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-07 22:56 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-07 22:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -2.62%E -1.18%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -7.38%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 22:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-07 22:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 22:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 22:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 22:31 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -10.19%E -6.37%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-07 22:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -3.93%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-07 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 20:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:31 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:31 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 22:31 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -4.81%E -2.22%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -7.38%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 22:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.25%E -2.43%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 20:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.25%E -2.43%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 22:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 22:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 22:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 22:36 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 22:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 22:11 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 22:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 22:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 22:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 22:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 22:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 22:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-07 22:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-07 22:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.38%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 22:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -6.13%E -2.86%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -7.38%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -7.00%E -3.30%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 22:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.89%E -1.67%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 20:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:20 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 22:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 22:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 22:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-06 09:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-07 22:36 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-07 22:28 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-07 20:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-07 22:28 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-07 20:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -10.07%E -4.91%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 22:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -10.07%E -4.91%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 22:31 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00% | 0.2% | 2026-08-07 22:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00% | 0.2% | 2026-08-07 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 22:56 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 22:56 |
| Novig◎ | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 1.1% | 2026-08-07 22:56 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78% | 1.2% | 2026-08-07 22:51 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.22% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.78% | 2.4% | 2026-08-07 22:56 |