La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Carlos Alcaraz v Tomas Machac
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Predicción 84.51%1.18momio equitativo
EV +3.95%
Ventaja +3.21%
Kelly +17.15%
Crecimiento +0.677%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.23
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
75.45%83.90%84.51%86.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.061.131.121.2394.34%88.80%89.29%81.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Tomas Machac (Visitante)
Predicción 15.49%6.46momio equitativo
EV +11.38%
Ventaja +1.58%
Kelly +1.84%
Crecimiento +0.209%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.19
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.26%16.10%15.49%24.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.755.946.007.1926.67%16.84%16.67%13.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV +3.95%E +3.21%K +17.15%G +0.677% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -36.48%E -8.90%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-15 16:50 |
| SportsBet | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV +3.10%E +2.54%K +14.09%G +0.437% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -38.03%E -9.51%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-15 16:50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV +3.10%E +2.54%K +14.09%G +0.437% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -38.03%E -9.51%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-15 16:50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV +3.10%E +2.54%K +14.09%G +0.437% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -41.91%E -11.18%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-15 16:49 |
| 1xBet | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.39%EV +2.26%E +1.86%K +10.74%G +0.242% | 4.66I 21.46%NM 20.61%EV -27.81%E -5.97%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-15 16:15 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV +1.41%E +1.18%K +7.05%G +0.099% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -28.74%E -6.25%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 16:13 |
| DraftKings | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.93%EV +0.565%E +0.475%K +2.97%G +0.017% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.07%EV -26.57%E -5.61%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 16:15 |
| Bovada | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -2.82%E -2.45%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -14.80%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 15:54 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -2.82%E -2.45%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -16.35%E -3.03%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 15:48 |
| Fanatics | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -3.66%E -3.21%K -26.15%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -10.15%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-15 15:54 |
| Bet Victor | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -3.66%E -3.21%K -26.15%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -22.54%E -4.51%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 15:54 |
| Pinnacle | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.42%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.58%EV +11.38%E +1.58%K +1.84%G +0.209% | 2.4% | 2026-04-15 15:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| BetRivers | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| LeoVegas | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| Casumo | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| Grosvenor | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| Unibet | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| Bally Bet | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| betPARX | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -14.80%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-15 15:54 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -4.51%E -3.99%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -16.35%E -3.03%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.88%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.81I 14.68%NM 14.12%EV +5.50%E +0.807%K +0.946%G +0.052% | 4.0% | 2026-04-15 15:41 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV +2.09%E +0.317%K +0.374%G +0.008% | 4.5% | 2026-04-15 14:30 |
| BoyleSports | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +0.695%E +0.107%K +0.126%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-04-15 15:54 |
| NordicBet | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 15:53 |
| Betsson | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 15:54 |
| PlayUp | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 14:30 |
| 888sport | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 11:00 |
| William Hill | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 11:00 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 11:00 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 11:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -13.25%E -2.37%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -13.25%E -2.37%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| ReBet | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -5.35%E -4.78%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -16.35%E -3.03%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-15 15:54 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.14%EV -6.20%E -5.58%K -56.32%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.86%EV +6.89%E +0.999%K +1.17%G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-04-15 15:01 |
| Coolbet | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -6.20%E -5.58%K -56.32%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +3.79%E +0.566%K +0.666%G +0.025% | 5.0% | 2026-04-15 16:16 |
| Betway | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.20%E -5.58%K -56.32%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.695%E +0.107%K +0.126%G +0.001% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 15:20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.20%E -5.58%K -56.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-15 13:20 |
| TAB | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.20%E -5.58%K -56.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-15 14:30 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -6.20%E -5.58%K -56.32%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -13.25%E -2.37%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-15 15:55 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.20%E -5.58%K -56.32%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -14.80%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-15 15:50 |
| Bet Right | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.04%E -6.40%K -70.41%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +8.44%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 16:50 |
| Caesars | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.04%E -6.40%K -70.41%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +0.695%E +0.107%K +0.126%G +0.001% | 6.3% | 2026-04-15 13:20 |
| theScore Bet | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -7.04%E -6.40%K -70.41%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -0.854%E -0.133%K -0.158%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-15 10:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.04%E -6.40%K -70.41%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-15 08:20 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -7.89%E -7.23%K -87.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +8.44%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 16:50 |
| BetMGM | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -7.89%E -7.23%K -87.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +8.44%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 11:00 |
| Coral | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -7.89%E -7.23%K -87.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +8.44%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 11:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -7.89%E -7.23%K -87.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +8.44%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 11:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -7.89%E -7.23%K -87.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -7.05%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-15 13:20 |
| Everygame | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -8.73%E -8.08%K -109.14%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +0.695%E +0.107%K +0.126%G +0.001% | 8.0% | 2026-04-15 16:15 |
| GTbets | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.51%EV -8.73%E -8.08%K -109.14%G +0.000% | 5.89I 16.98%NM 15.49%EV -8.75%E -1.49%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-15 16:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -9.58%E -8.95%K -136.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +8.44%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 11:00 |
| Neds | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -9.58%E -8.95%K -136.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +8.44%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 11:00 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.98%EV -10.42%E -9.83%K -173.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV +0.695%E +0.107%K +0.126%G +0.001% | 9.7% | 2026-04-15 15:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-04-15 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50% | 1.3% | 2026-04-15 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50% | 1.3% | 2026-04-15 17:15 |
| Matchbook | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94% | 1.4% | 2026-04-15 16:57 |
| Novig | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.77% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 23.23% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 17:05 |
| ProphetX | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04% | 4.3% | 2026-04-15 16:19 |
| Smarkets | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 17:07 |