The School of Odds
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Turkey v Italy

2026-09-28 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Turkey (Local)

Prediction 35.43%2.82fair odd
EV -0.783%
Edge -0.280%
Kelly -0.435%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.44%35.31%35.43%36.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.682.692.8040.82%37.26%37.17%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Italy (Visit)

Prediction 37.14%2.69fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.87%37.27%37.24%39.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.452.432.6043.86%40.74%41.15%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.43%3.65fair odd
EV +0.378%
Edge +0.103%
Kelly +0.142%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.25%27.41%27.33%28.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.393.403.6631.25%29.49%29.41%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Turkey (Local): 35.43%; Italy (Visit): 37.14%; Draw: 27.43%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.66, producing a positive expected value of +0.378%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.64%EV -3.62%E -1.33%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.87%EV -4.92%E -1.92%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.49%EV +0.378%E +0.103%K +0.142%G +0.001%3.1%2026-09-25 23:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.63%EV -4.68%E -1.74%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.89%EV -6.04%E -2.39%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.48%EV -0.719%E -0.199%K -0.274%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 23:15
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.56%E -0.929%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -10.86%E -4.53%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -1.27%E -0.352%K -0.487%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-25 20:45
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -0.783%E -0.280%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -10.86%E -4.53%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.01%E -1.15%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 18:45
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -0.783%E -0.280%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -9.75%E -4.01%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-25 21:55
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -0.783%E -0.280%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -9.75%E -4.01%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-25 21:55
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -0.783%E -0.280%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -9.75%E -4.01%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-25 21:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -0.783%E -0.280%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -9.75%E -4.01%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-25 21:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -0.783%E -0.280%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -9.75%E -4.01%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-25 21:55
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.42%EV -4.68%E -1.74%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.64%EV -3.44%E -1.32%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.94%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 02:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -0.783%E -0.280%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -10.86%E -4.53%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-25 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -0.783%E -0.280%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -10.86%E -4.53%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-25 18:45
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -0.783%E -0.280%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -10.86%E -4.53%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-25 18:45
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.15%E -2.86%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-25 22:10
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.15%E -2.86%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-26 00:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -11.41%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.86%E -4.53%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-26 00:20
Bovada🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.35%EV -5.74%E -2.16%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.59%EV -4.55%E -1.77%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -8.12%E -2.43%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 01:52
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.34%EV -8.93%E -3.48%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.38%EV -9.75%E -4.01%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.28%EV -8.67%E -2.60%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-26 00:19
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -3.44%E -1.32%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -9.50%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 00:19
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.69%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -3.44%E -1.32%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -9.50%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-26 00:20
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -3.44%E -1.32%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.50%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-26 00:20
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -7.15%E -2.86%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.50%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-25 22:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.93%EV -13.46%E -5.78%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.50%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-25 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.93%EV -13.46%E -5.78%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.50%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-25 21:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.91%EV -13.19%E -5.38%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.43%EV -12.72%E -5.41%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.66%EV -9.50%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-26 00:20
Suprabets🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.15%E -2.86%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.05%EV -10.32%E -3.16%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-25 22:29
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -10.86%E -4.53%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.87%E -3.34%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 01:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.61%EV -6.81%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.77%EV -15.32%E -6.72%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -12.24%E -3.82%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-25 21:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-09-26 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-09-26 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-09-26 01:55