Language:English
Turkey v Italy
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Turkey (Local)
Prediction 32.88%3.04fair odd
EV -0.691%
Edge -0.229%
Kelly -0.342%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.99%33.03%32.71%34.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.792.803.0238.02%35.78%35.71%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Italy (Visit)
Prediction 39.37%2.54fair odd
EV +2.36%
Edge +0.907%
Kelly +1.47%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.05%39.27%39.58%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.432.422.6043.48%41.20%41.32%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.75%3.60fair odd
EV -0.108%
Edge -0.030%
Kelly -0.042%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%27.69%27.71%28.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.373.403.6031.25%29.69%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Turkey (Local): 32.88%; Italy (Visit): 39.37%; Draw: 27.75%. For Italy (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.36%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%EV +2.36%E +0.907%K +1.47%G +0.035% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -4.27%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%EV +2.36%E +0.907%K +1.47%G +0.035% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -4.27%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%EV +2.36%E +0.907%K +1.47%G +0.035% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -4.27%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.34%EV -9.24%E -3.35%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.46%EV -0.398%E -0.157%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.21%EV -6.77%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-28 17:56 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -11.21%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -1.58%E -0.631%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.43%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-28 18:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -11.21%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -1.58%E -0.631%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.43%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -11.21%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -1.58%E -0.631%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.43%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -11.21%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.29%EV -2.37%E -0.954%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -9.82%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -11.21%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.29%EV -2.37%E -0.954%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -9.82%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -12.86%E -4.85%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -2.37%E -0.954%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -9.82%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.55%EV -7.27%E -2.58%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.62%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-28 18:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.55%EV -7.27%E -2.58%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.62%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-28 18:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -12.86%E -4.85%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.21%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -0.691%E -0.229%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.59%EV -3.94%E -1.62%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.41%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.89%EV -3.98%E -1.36%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.36%EV -3.94%E -1.62%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.75%EV -3.99%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-28 18:38 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -13.52%E -5.14%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.27%EV -4.33%E -1.78%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -11.21%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -13.52%E -5.14%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.27%EV -4.33%E -1.78%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -11.21%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 33.06%EV -3.65%E -1.25%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.03%EV -4.73%E -1.95%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.91%EV -0.108%E -0.030%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-28 18:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.49%EV -2.01%E -0.673%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.01%EV -4.73%E -1.95%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.50%EV -2.33%E -0.661%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-28 18:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.108%E -0.030%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-28 18:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -4.64%E -1.60%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.43%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-28 18:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -5.29%E -1.84%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -8.43%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -5.29%E -1.84%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -8.43%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-28 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-28 18:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -8.43%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-28 18:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.29%E -1.84%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -6.30%E -2.65%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-28 18:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -11.21%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -6.30%E -2.65%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.43%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -4.64%E -1.60%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.87%EV -7.09%E -3.00%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-28 18:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.48%E -3.18%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -7.05%E -2.10%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-28 18:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.70%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.44%EV -7.48%E -3.18%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -4.27%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.03%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.36%EV -7.48%E -3.18%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -7.05%E -2.10%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-28 18:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.53%EV -12.86%E -4.85%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.94%EV -7.48%E -3.18%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -4.27%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-28 18:33 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.64%E -1.60%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.43%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-28 18:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.24% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.08% | 0.3% | 2026-09-28 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.24% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.08% | 0.3% | 2026-09-28 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.24% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.08% | 0.3% | 2026-09-28 18:35 |